The US and China must avoid exaggerated fears that could create a new cold or hot war：Harvard scholar

Screenshot of the official website of Project Syndicate

Joseph S. Nye Jr., a distinguished professor and former dean of Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, published an article titled “What Could Cause a US-China War” Tuesday on Project Syndicate, in which he called for US and China to avoid exaggerated fears that could create a new cold or hot war, as both nations have an incentive to cooperate in a number of areas.

Recalling that Thucydides attributed the war that ripped apart the ancient Greek world to two causes: the rise of a new power, and the fear that this created in the established power, Nye noted that “the second case is as important as the first, and the US and China must avoid exaggerated fears that could create a new cold or hot war.”

Some analysts, citing Thucydides’ attribution of the Peloponnesian War to Sparta’s fear of a rising Athens, believe the US-China relationship is entering a period of conflict pitting an established hegemon against an increasingly powerful challenger.

However, Professor Nye said he is not that pessimistic. In his view, economic and ecological interdependence reduces the probability of a real cold war, much less a hot one, because both countries have an incentive to cooperate in a number of areas. At the same time, miscalculation is always possible, and some see the danger of “sleepwalking” into catastrophe, as happened with World War I.

According to Nye, it would be wise if the US can acknowledge the power change in a way that permits a constructive relationship, while both nations learn to cooperate in producing global public goods under a changing distribution of power.