Forecast for global issues in 2013 (2)

Will the military conflict between Israel and Iran be avoided?

Origin: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had recently said that he will take stopping Iran's nuclear program as his first task if he is reelected for a second term. The international community is also worried about whether the nuclear program of Iran will lead to a military conflict.

Consequence: It will bring an unpredictable consequence if Israel launches a military strike against Iran because although Israel has advanced weaponry and the support of Western countries led by the United States, Iran also has a military strength that cannot be overlooked. Once a military conflict breaks between Iran and Israel, it will involve the neighboring countries and even some Western countries.

Prospect: Israel faces various constraints though it refused to rule out the possibility of military action against Iran. For example, the United States and Europe explicitly opposed Iran to cross the threshold of nuclear weapons, but they did not set a red line on the nuclear issue of Iran. At present, some countries and even some domestic political forces of Israel are cautious and optimistic about a negotiated settlement of Iranian nuclear issue.

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