Germany's tightening of border controls raises concern of domino effect

BRUSSELS, Sept. 18 (Xinhua) -- Germany extended temporary border controls to all land frontiers for six months starting Monday.

Under the decision, Germany has reinstated ID checks at its borders with France, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. Similar checks are already in place with Austria, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Switzerland.

The move dealt a significant blow to one of the European Union (EU)'s core principles -- the free movement across internal borders, a key feature of the Schengen Agreement.

The agreement, signed in 1985, has long been a symbol of European unity, which allows passport-free travel across 25 of the 27 EU countries, plus four non-EU states.

Germany, the EU's largest economy, deviating from this principle, has caused concerns about the potential unraveling of the Schengen Zone. Czech Interior Ministry spokesperson Hana Mala warned that such a decision could trigger a "domino effect" across the passport-free zone, which brings together 420 million people.

Vehicles line up to enter Germany on a highway in Slubice, Poland, Sept. 16, 2024. (Photo by Jaap Arriens/Xinhua)

WHAT'S GOING ON

Frankfurt (Oder) is located in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, facing the western Polish city of Slubice across the Oder River. The two cities are connected by a bridge, which should have been a route for frictionless movement of people and vehicles between the two countries.

A sign at the bridge's German end reads "Frankfurt (Oder) and Slubice -- No Borders" in both German and Polish.

However, on Sept. 11, two days after Germany announced plans to expand border checks, cars, trucks and long-distance buses that were constantly arriving from Poland across the Oder River formed long queues in front of the border checkpoint on the German side.

Although not every vehicle was inspected, frequent random checks significantly impacted traffic flow. The line of waiting vehicles stretched back to the Polish side of the 252-meter bridge. Some drivers rolled down their windows, gesturing and showing impatience on their faces.

This will be a daily routine at least in the coming six months.

WHY GERMANY TIGHTENS BORDERS

Germany announced the decision to tighten border checks on Sept. 9, citing heightened security concerns.

A recent string of deadly attacks, including last month's fatal stabbing by a Syrian refugee in Solingen, has fueled public debate about immigration and security.

Policemen work at a site of a knife attack in Solingen, Germany, Aug. 24, 2024. (Xinhua/Zhang Fan)

German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has argued that stricter border control is intended to curb terrorism and cross-border crimes. According to figures from the ministry, since last October, over 30,000 illegal migrants have been turned away with partial border patrols.

However, this explanation only reveals part of the story, as the plan is also likely politically motivated, aimed at appealing to voters who support the far-right, anti-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

Earlier this month, the AfD achieved historic gains in Thuringia's state legislature election -- the first victory for a far-right party in Germany since World War II, mounting immense pressure on Chancellor Olaf Scholz's center-left coalition in the run-up to the 2025 German federal election.

A September poll by broadcaster ARD showed German public support for the tripartite coalition dropped to merely 30 percent, with 77 percent of respondents demanding a fundamentally different refugee policy, and nearly three-quarters backing permanent border controls.

Croatian political analyst Zarko Puhovski told Xinhua that Berlin's move is less about managing migration and more about neutralizing far-right influence. Yet, he doubts whether this plan will succeed on either front.

BUTTERFLY EFFECTS

Moreover, Germany's hard line on borders reflects an underlying fact within the EU: the failure to devise a cohesive and efficient response to the ongoing refugee crisis.

Police work at a border checkpoint in Frankfurt (Oder), Germany, Sept. 10, 2024. (Xinhua/Ren Pengfei)

One notable example is the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum adopted in April. After years of negotiation, the new rules won't take effect until 2026, highlighting the EU's inability to address thorny issues in real-time, prompting member states to take matters into their own hands.

Actually, since the 2015 refugee crisis, border controls once meant to be temporary have become semi-permanent in some member states.

However, Slovenian political scientist Bogomil Ferfila cautioned that the strategy of bolstering national security at the expense of neighbors is unlikely to succeed.

Without addressing the root causes of refugee flows and formulating a cohesive EU-wide policy, individual border controls will not resolve the crisis anywhere.

In addition, it is a policy that will economically backfire.

Germany's tighter restrictions on its over 3,700 km land borders are deemed to affect around 240,000 cross-border commuters, according to data from the German Federal Employment Agency.

On the bridge connecting Frankfurt (Oder) and Slubice, a Polish taxi driver who asked to remain anonymous expressed his frustration: "I used to make several trips between Germany and Poland each day ... Now I'm down to two or three, and my costs have gone up."

The once fluid Schengen Zone, where 1.7 million people crossed borders daily for work and trade, generating trillions of euros annually, is now facing delays, logistical challenges and increased costs.

Transport and Logistics Netherlands (TLN), a Dutch transport industry organization, has rung an alarm over the potential impact on trade, citing past experiences of long border delays caused by similar measures, like those during the COVID-19 pandemic and the European Football Championship.

"Germany is undermining the Schengen Agreement and the free movement of goods," TLN said, warning that transport delays could lead to severe consequences for supply chains.

It is estimated that border controls, if they became de facto permanent, would decrease trade by 10-20 percent.

A 2016 study by the Bertelsmann Foundation said that reinstating internal border controls could cost Europe around 470 billion euros (521 billion U.S. dollars) in lost growth over a decade -- a figure that now seems increasingly relevant.

DARK HOURS FOR SCHENGEN

Germany is neither the first nor the last Schengen country to have resorted to tightening border control.

Italy has reintroduced control on its border with Slovenia, while Denmark reinforced control of its border with Germany, and Austria extended checks with Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Hungary till mid-November.

On Friday, the Netherlands joined the ranks as Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof vowed to reinforce border checks.

As an increasing number of countries disrupt free movement for national interests, concerns are growing about the erosion of the Schengen framework.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Berlin of "de facto suspending Schengen on a large scale."

Maurice Stierl, a migration and border researcher at the University of Osnabruck in Germany, lamented in The Guardian newspaper that "the German government risks putting the EU itself in jeopardy; the very idea of a political community that enshrines the right to free movement is crumbling before our eyes."

Vehicles heading for Germany wait in line on a bridge linking Frankfurt (Oder) in the eastern German state of Brandenburg and the western Polish city of Slubice on Sept. 10, 2024. (Xinhua/Ren Pengfei)

However, some analysts suggest there is no need for alarm given Schengen's resilience and elasticity, underlining that the latest developments are not a harbinger of doom for Schengen.

Liu Chen, an assistant research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said that while the Schengen framework is under strain, it is not yet collapsing.

The future of the European integration remains uncertain and more time is needed for the full effects and developments to become evident, Liu added.

Croatian analyst Puhovski also said Europe will oscillate between centralization and decentralization before finding balance. "If the overall situation calms down, then the push to organize Europe will likely continue," he told Xinhua.