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U.S. gas prices highest in history -- could they go even higher?

By Matthew Rusling (Xinhua) 10:21, June 15, 2022

WASHINGTON, June 14 (Xinhua) -- Gas prices soared to the highest in U.S. history over the weekend. But one question remains: could they spike even higher?

Gasoline prices hit the 5-U.S.-dollar mark for the first time ever on Saturday, further stinging millions of drivers who were already feeling pain at the pump.

The milestone price increase occurred amid the worst U.S. inflation in 40 years, as the U.S. Federal Reserve plans to hike interest rates in a bid to get record consumer price increases under control.

The U.S. national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline on Tuesday was 5.016 dollars, according to American Automobile Association, which is significantly higher than 3.078 dollars per gallon a year ago.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said Americans are not "far away" from the highest prices, according to a report by CNBC.

"I don't think it would eclipse 5.50 (dollars a gallon). I would say 5.25 is the top, but again, the market is unhinged," DeHaan said.

However, if there are any disruptions this summer, such as from hurricanes, prices could spike, he added.

Usually, gasoline prices peak in mid-May, but this year they have continued to surge. Some analysts predict that gas prices may not hit their peak until around mid-July, when the summer road trip season tends to hit its highest point.

Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group, told Xinhua that while some have curtailed their gasoline use, others are unable to do so.

That's because so many Americans depend solely on their cars to get to work or cart their kids off to school.

But at the same time, many Americans are hitting the road this summer after being cooped up at home for two years during the pandemic, said Baumohl, who was ranked by The Wall Street Journal in 2019 as the most accurate economic forecaster in the previous year's economic survey.

So the United States may yet see increased demand for gasoline, Baumohl said.

"We're not even yet at the peak of summer driving season. So if it's 5 dollars now, I don't see any reason why anyone should be optimistic that it's going to stop here and go back down," Baumohl said.

Some stations in California are even at 10 dollars a gallon, although that state has the highest gas sales tax of any U.S. state.

While Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, a consulting firm, is more optimistic about the drop in gas prices.

"I think we're about to top out," he told Xinhua, adding "gasoline prices are temporarily peaking, and we could see them fall in the next couple of days."

Consumers will be driving quite a bit this summer, but the high price of gasoline may force them to take shorter trips, Lipow said.

Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, told Xinhua he believed that whether gasoline prices could climb higher depends on whether the conflict in Ukraine "causes more oil to be withdrawn from world markets."

Record gas prices are particularly harmful to Americans who live paycheck to paycheck, and particularly to those in rural areas where there is no public transportation.

"By my calculations, the typical household is spending about 160 dollars more on gas a month than a year ago," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

"That's a big bite," he said.

One silver lining is that keeping the gas tank full requires a much smaller chunk of the household budget than in years past. Much of that is because of increased fuel efficiency in vehicles, experts said.

Drivers spent an average of 20 cents to a mile on gasoline as of June this year. That's a sharp contrast from 1980, when the same mile would have cost 30 cents in today's dollars, according to a CNBC analysis.

(Web editor: Peng Yukai, Liang Jun)

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