Beyond 'menu or table': how middle powers fuel global multipolarity

Recently, leaders of the five Nordic countries and Canada issued a joint statement, announcing plans to advance shared principles and interests through regularized, multi-level meeting. International observers view this as an emerging "middle power" alliance to reduce dependence on the United States.

"If we are not at the table, we will be on the menu." Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark warning earlier this year captured the growing anxiety among traditional U.S. allies amid resurgent power politics and shifting global rules. His prescription? Middle powers must awaken.

To understand this geopolitical shift's implications, three questions merit examination.

First, what defines middle powers?

Occupying the global hierarchy's middle tier, these states lack superpower dominance but resist subordination to major powers. They possess meaningful economic strength, diplomatic agency, and regional influence.

Their growing assertiveness reflects fundamental global transformations. Intensifying geopolitical competition has destabilized international systems, while hegemonic actions increasingly threaten core national interests. Compelled to protect their sovereignty, middle powers are prioritizing strategic autonomy and mutual cooperation.

Second, how does their rise reshape global dynamics?

This activism accelerates multipolarity's irreversible advance. A 2026 report by Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace shows that the collective rise of middle powers is profoundly reshaping the global power balance, and will continue to be a key force influencing the direction of the international order over the next two decades.

True multipolarity extends beyond power redistribution: it enables diverse development models, governance approaches, and civilizational coexistence. Historically dominated by few powers, today's international system benefits as middle powers counterbalance unilateralism through coordinated positions.

Yet caution remains: Cooperation shouldn't undermine multilateralism. If middle-power alliances prioritize exclusive interests over universal rules, they risk becoming new factional blocs -- tools for heightened geopolitical rivalry. Critically, lasting autonomy requires confronting structural dependencies on hegemonic powers, not merely reacting to their policies.

Third, how can middle powers strengthen global stability?

Faced with a world marked by turbulence and transformation, middle powers certainly have a legitimate need to safeguard their own rights and interests. However, such efforts should proceed from the bigger picture, addressing the root causes in order and governance, and helping shape an overall environment more conducive to peace and development.

They should make efforts to build an equal and orderly multipolar world. Regardless of size or strength, all countries are equal stakeholders in the international community, and should abide by universally recognized international rules. Only in this way can the "awakening" of middle powers be transformed into a driving force for cooperation, and deliver sustained benefits to world peace and development.

They must firmly uphold international rule of law and fairness and justice. In today's international relations, the rule of law serves as the fundamental guarantee and the essential foundation for fairness and justice. Middle powers should defend their legitimate rights and interests within the framework of international law, fully, faithfully, and comprehensively observe the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and other universally recognized basic norms governing international relations, and firmly reject double standards. Only then can they effectively uphold the authority and seriousness of international rule of law.

They need to stand united in opposing hegemonism and power politics. The most prominent global challenge today lies in hegemonic acts that gravely destabilize the international order. If middle powers truly wish to play a greater and more positive role in international affairs, they should unite with the broader international community, uphold the principle that international affairs should be discussed and handled by all countries together, build the broadest possible consensus for defending multilateralism, and speak with one voice in safeguarding international order.

Transcending the "menu or table" paradigm demands addressing root causes. By abandoning zero-sum mentalities and embracing inclusive multilateral cooperation -- jointly pursued and mutually beneficial -- middle powers can forge stability through consensus. This constructive approach will sustain their vital contributions to global peace, stability, and shared prosperity.