Is the EU prepared for defense independence?

Flags of the European Union fly outside the Berlaymont Building, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels, Belgium, Jan. 29, 2025. (Xinhua/Meng Dingbo)

Analysts note that while the EU seeks to break free from U.S. influence, its unwillingness to fully relinquish its security reliance on NATO would make the journey to achieve this goal a long and rocky one.

BRUSSELS, March 24 (Xinhua) -- The EU summit in Brussels concluded last Thursday with leaders voicing support for a white paper calling for enhanced European defense.

However, EU member states remain divided on how to defend Ukraine and ensure their own security. Analysts note that as U.S. defense commitments shift and Europe remains on the sidelines of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the push for defense autonomy is gaining momentum. However, whether this goal can be fully realized by 2030 remains uncertain.

DISAGREEMENTS OVER AID TO UKRAINE

The Ukraine crisis and the new U.S. administration's stance on Ukraine have greatly heightened Europe's security awareness, making the defense of Ukraine a key topic at the summit.

"The international order is undergoing changes of the magnitude not seen since 1945. This is a pivotal moment for European security," the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said in Brussels.

Before the summit, Kallas proposed an additional 40 billion euros (43.38 billion U.S. dollars) in military aid to Ukraine. Italy, Spain and Hungary opposed the idea, while some eastern and northern European nations expressed support. France's stance remained unclear.

Kallas acknowledged that several EU countries had reservations about the proposals due to financial constraints. She said the EU is instead more focused on securing a more immediate goal: providing Ukraine with 5 billion euros, far less than the proposed 40 billion euros, to purchase ammunition to meet its urgent needs.

Analysts believe internal EU divisions over Ukraine could weaken Europe's influence in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Public opinion indicates that, apart from Hungary's evident opposition, other EU member states have failed to agree on the specific amount of military aid to Ukraine. The statement issued by the 26 EU leaders at the summit reiterated support for Ukraine in various forms but did not specify the amount of military assistance, highlighting growing internal disputes.

Jian Junbo, director of the Center for China-Europe Relations at Shanghai-based Fudan University, noted that economic pressure has led to disagreements among European nations over continued military funding for Ukraine. There are also differing views on how to raise funds and whether to send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine or extend France's "nuclear umbrella" to the country -- issues on which no consensus has been reached.

FADING TRUST

A recent article on the Atlantic magazine's website argues that Europe's long-standing security dependence on the United States is untenable. After the recent transatlantic tensions, the piece's title doesn't hold back: "Europe Can't Trust the U.S. Anymore."

The European Commission presented the "White Paper on Defense - Readiness 2030" last Wednesday, calling for increased investment in the defense industry and joint procurement to ensure that Europe has robust defense capabilities by 2030. At the summit, leaders of all 27 EU member states agreed in principle with the paper's objectives.

"The security architecture that we relied on can no longer be taken for granted. Europe is ready to step up. We must invest in defense, strengthen our capabilities, and take a proactive approach to security," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

This White Paper aligns with von der Leyen's earlier 800-billion-euro "ReArm Europe" plan, which seeks to mobilize EU resources to strengthen defense autonomy.

Analysts believe the U.S. administration's policy shift toward Ukraine and Europe has prompted European leaders to prioritize defense autonomy and strategic independence.

A recent article on the website of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain argued that "With the U.S. no longer serving as a reliable defense partner, Europe must step up to provide support to Ukraine and address its own dependencies on the U.S.."

ROCKY JOURNEY AHEAD

Analysts note that while the EU seeks to break free from U.S. influence, its unwillingness to fully relinquish its security reliance on NATO would make the journey to achieve this goal a long and rocky one.

Paul van Hooft, a researcher at the U.S. think tank RAND, argues that if the United States withdraws from Europe, France and Britain's nuclear deterrence capabilities are still insufficient to protect the entire continent.

Not to mention, EU countries are still heavily dependent on U.S. weapons; thus, creating an independent defense industry within a few years is unlikely. Research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute shows that the United States accounted for 64 percent of arms imports by European NATO states in 2020-2024, up from 52 percent in 2015-2019.

Moreover, Europe currently lacks standardized weapon systems. Consequently, in the near future, numerous European nations are inclined to purchase standardized U.S. weapons instead of European-made alternatives.

Lastly, funding issues will also severely hinder the EU's efforts to achieve defense autonomy. According to EU diplomats quoted by The Guardian, the headline 800 billion euros would be hard to realize, as economically developed countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are unwilling to take out EU-backed loans, and other member states, particularly in Southern Europe, are reluctant to increase debt for defense spending.