Nationwide sampling survey on 2024 population changes kicks off

Children tap the legs of local seniors at an elderly care center in Deqing County of Huzhou City, east China's Zhejiang Province, Oct. 10, 2024. (Photo: Xinhua)

The National Bureau of Statistics is set to launch a nationwide sampling survey on 2024 population changes beginning on Friday, with multiple regions recently releasing specific survey procedures.

Demographers told the Global Times that as China undergoes a significant demographic transition, this survey holds increasing importance. There was an expectation of a slight baby boom in the Year of Dragon and this survey to some extent can help verify that expectation.

The annual survey is crucial for formulating national economic and social development plans, improving relevant policies, and promoting high-quality population development, demographers said.

Three percent of Beijing's 21.8 million residents will be surveyed. The survey will be conducted either through in-home registration by surveyors or by residents filling out the information independently via a WeChat mini-program. Surveyors, equipped with official identification, will visit homes to conduct the survey to carry out their work, Beijing Daily reported citing Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics.

To accurately reflect the population changes, the Liaoning provincial government increased the sample size for the population change survey from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent this year. In 2023, Liaoning recorded a net inflow of 86,000 people from other provinces, reversing the trend of continuous net outflow that had persisted since 2012, the Liaoning Daily said.

The survey will be conducted by households, and the survey content was the basic information of the population and households, including name, citizen ID number, gender, age, ethnicity, education level, migration and mobility, work, marriage, childbirth, death, and housing, Liaoning Daily reported.

This annual population change sampling survey, launched by the National Bureau of Statistics in the late 1980s, involves sampling one-thousandth of the national population to calculate and publish various demographic indicators each year, Chen Wei, a professor at the Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, told the Global Times.

As China undergoes a significant demographic transition, with rapid changes in marriage, fertility, and population structure, this survey has gained increased importance. It provides essential foundational data for monitoring these shifts, analyzing population trends, and evaluating fertility support policies, Chen noted.

According to the National Census Regulations, a national population census is conducted every ten years, and typically, a one percent population sampling survey is conducted midway between censuses, usually in years ending in 5. In other years, a 0.1 percent population sampling survey is conducted.

Additionally, Chen mentioned the survey could help determine whether 2024, known as the Year of Dragon in the Chinese lunar calendar, will see a modest increase in births as many demographers forecasted.

However, since the survey was conducted in November, births from November and December, months that often see high birth rates, were only partially included. January of next year will also fall within the Year of the Dragon, he added.

"The Year of the Dragon ushered in a baby boom. Guangzhou Women and Children's Medical Center is presenting special commemorative envelopes for 'Dragon babies,'" Yangcheng Daily reported earlier in October.

Zhai Zhenwu, a professor at Renmin University of China, said that the Chinese population holds a special fondness for the ''Dragon'' zodiac sign. During the last Dragon Year in 2012, there was a slight peak in birth rates. A modest increase in births is anticipated for 2024.

While zodiac sign preferences can influence birth rates, their effect on broader population trends is relatively minor, demographer Yuan Xin told the Global Times. He said the key lies in enhancing young people's willingness to marry and have children, as well as significantly reducing the burden of childbearing and upbringing on families.