Economists predict US recession in 2023

A poll of leading academic economists conducted by the Financial Times shows the US economy is likely to fall into recession next year, according to a Financial Times report published on Monday.

"The latest survey suggests mounting headwinds for the world's largest economy after one of the most rapid rebounds in history, as the Federal Reserve ramps up efforts to contain the highest inflation in about 40 years," the report said.

Nearly 70 percent of the 49 economists polled in the survey conducted between June 6 and 9 predicted the National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of when recessions begin and end, is to declare a recession in 2023, which is a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months".

A third of the respondents believe the NBER's declaration of recession will happen during the second half of next year, while almost 40 percent project the NBER will declare one in the first or second quarter of 2023. One economist predicted it in 2022.

The report noted many of the economists are concerned about a more adverse outcome given the severity of the inflation situation.

Economists now expect core inflation to exceed 3 percent by the end of 2023 and predict geopolitical tensions and energy costs will keep inflation high.

CNBC reported on Saturday experts observed US might already be in recession. Strong inflation and anxious consumers add up to more worries a recession has already arrived, CNBC said, citing a few economists.

Both the consumer price index and core inflation excluding food and energy were higher than expected.

The consumer price index rose 8.6 percent in May from a year ago, the highest jump since December 1981.

"We're in technical recession but just don't realize it," the CNBC quoted Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett as saying.