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Chinese scholars anticipate four major trends of China’s economy in 2019

(People's Daily Online)    16:10, January 22, 2019

At an economic conference held by China News Service on Jan. 21, Chinese scholars highlighted four major features expected in China’s economy over the coming year, reported on Monday.

Stable macroeconomic growth

The World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have cut their global economic growth forecasts for 2019 due to various factors, including the slow development of international trade and manufacturing industries. Some worry that China is not immune to the consequences of changes in the global economic environment.

Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the School of Finance at the Renmin University of China, explained that China is prepared for the challenges it will be faced with this year, as the country will implement better macroeconomic policies and capacity for coping with uncertainties.

Although there are significant uncertainties in today’s global economy, China has a number of macroeconomic control measures, and can tackle the problem of “changes in stability” within economic development, said Wan Zhe, chief economist for the China National Gold Group Co., Ltd.

China will stay firm on macroeconomic policies and will see no reduction of economic growth, confirmed Wan.

Import growth rate may continue outpacing that of foreign trade

In 2018, China’s imports exceeded a record volume of $2 trillion for the first time, up 15.8 percent year-on-year, 3.2 percent higher than the growth of China’s foreign trade volume during the same period.

Considering that China is still making continuous efforts to roll out policies to expand importation, the growth rate of imports to China will probably exceed the overall growth rate of the country’s foreign trade, according to Zhao Jinping, former director-general of the Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations at the Development Research Center of China’s State Council.

Tight regulations on property market to continue

It was explicitly stated at China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference that the country will stick to the principle that "houses are for living in, not for speculation.”

So far, the overall thinking of policymakers on regulations concerning property market has not changed, neither has the supervision and accountability mechanism of the central government over the local home market, said Ni Pengfei, director of the City and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

China will continue to unswervingly adhere to its property market regulations, noted Ni.

Greater changes in the employment market

As of 2018, China had created over 13 million new urban jobs every year for six consecutive years.

According to Chu Zhaohui, a researcher at China’s National Institute of Education Sciences, pressure from the economic downturn might affect employment. Moreover, with the continuous adjustment to industrial structure, there will be significant changes in the labor structure of various industries.

In 2019, re-employment and job-hopping may be more common, said Chu, adding that authorities need to create necessary conditions and provide support for people to facilitate re-employment and career change. 

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