Sliding toward 'predatory hegemony,' U.S. is 'regressing' into future

Since the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, the continued turmoil in the Middle East has been drawing global attention. As the international community hopes for an early end to the fighting, it is also asking: what lies behind this war?

The concept of "predatory hegemony," proposed by Stephen Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, offers a new lens for understanding the logic of U.S. foreign policy.

"Predatory hegemony" refers to the United States exploiting its privileged position in the international system to extract concessions, tribute, and displays of deference from both allies and adversaries.

Put simply, it treats all bilateral relationships, not only with rivals, but also with partners and allies, as zero-sum games, seeking to maximize gains in every interaction. Its core principle can be summed up as: "What's mine is mine; what's yours is negotiable."

The actions of the United States have laid bare this "predatory hegemony." It arbitrarily withdraws from international agreements and abandons global responsibilities, while selectively applying international rules -- keeping what suits it and discarding what does not. It attempts economic coercion through tariff wars and trade wars. And it now increasingly resorts to using or threatening force against sovereign states, seizing resources and making territorial demands without restraint. All these clearly demonstrate that the United States is accelerating its regression toward a model where might overrides everything.

This regression manifests itself on two levels. First is a regression in role identity. After the Cold War, although the United States retained hegemonic characteristics, it at least maintained the appearance of a "responsible actor," upholding alliances, providing certain international public goods, and leading the formulation and enforcement of global rules.

Today, that facade is rapidly fading. The United States is devolving into a "rule breaker" and "spoiler of cooperation," increasingly relying on the naked logic of the law of the jungle to sustain its dominance.

Second is a regression in strategic mindset. Relative decline in hegemony has fueled deep anxiety in the United States. According to World Bank data, the U.S. share of global GDP has fallen from around 40 percent in 1960 to about 25 percent in 2023. This relative decline has made Washington less able to accept changes in the global landscape.

The continued advance of economic globalization and the collective rise of the Global South have become sources of concern for some U.S. politicians. They view maintaining the existing international system as no longer worthwhile. Coupled with the rise of domestic populism and intensifying political polarization, their mindset has regressed into an "America only" mentality, pushing the country further down the path of unilateral bullying.

"Predatory hegemony contains the seeds of its own destruction," Walt wrote in Foreign Affairs. Why did he make such a conclusion?

First, predatory hegemony confuses the essential distinction between power and influence. Genuine international influence is built on shaping shared interests and upholding the credibility of rules. When a major country justifies its predatory actions through a "victim narrative" and frequently resorts to breaking agreements or withdrawing from international arrangements as leverage, it is in fact depleting its own credibility. Its global influence will inevitably decline gradually, and then suddenly.

Second, predatory hegemony traps itself in a zero-sum mindset. If every interaction is about extracting maximum gain, allies will feel less secure, and neutral parties will be compelled to seek alternatives. Today, U.S. allies increasingly find themselves "on the menu" of hegemonic calculations. Strengthening strategic autonomy has become a necessary choice for these countries to safeguard their own interests, as trust in U.S. great-power politics has eroded.

A recent global survey by Gallup, showed that approval of U.S. leadership declined by 10 points or more in 44 countries in 2025, with particularly sharp declines among NATO allies. The United States is losing friends at an alarming rate, and this is the cost of predatory hegemony.

Third, predatory hegemony underestimates the resilience of a multipolar world. An article in The National Interest noted that some U.S. officials remain trapped in a 19th-century mindset of great-power politics -- seizing territory, plundering resources, and crushing rivals. But the times have changed. This way of thinking no longer fits today's world. What is needed now is leadership that promotes win-win cooperation.

The evolution of the international landscape will not be halted by the will of any single country; rather, the self-marginalization of hegemonic powers will only accelerate the world's move toward greater diversity.

The United States' slide toward predatory hegemony amounts to "regressing into the future." From a "builder" of international rules to a "disruptor," from a "driver" of global cooperation to an "extractor," from a "trusted partner" to a "coercer" -- this series of regressions reflects, in essence, a self-isolation driven by hegemonic anxiety.

Walt offered a pointed and clear-eyed judgment: in the short term, predatory hegemony may yield some gains, but in the long run, it will leave Americans less secure, less prosperous, and less influential.

Breaking free from hegemonic thinking, viewing the world with clarity, and genuinely embracing multilateralism and international cooperation -- this is the right path for any major country.

(Zhong Sheng is a pen name often used by People's Daily to express its views on foreign policy and international affairs.)