Japan's dangerous militarization

Recent reports that Japan is considering exporting a medium-range missile system to the Philippines signals a worrying shift in Tokyo's defense and foreign policy. According to Kyodo News, informal consultations are underway between Tokyo and Manila regarding the possible export of the Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air missile. This development comes alongside Japan's broader plan to ease long-standing restrictions on weapons exports, potentially abolishing its "five-category" limitation as early as the first half of next year. Experts warn that these moves could accelerate Japan's military expansion, increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific, and provoke an arms race that threatens regional stability.

For decades following the end of World War II, Japan adhered to a constitutionally mandated "exclusively defense-oriented policy." Guided by its pacifist constitution, Japan limited its military capabilities and arms exports, projecting itself as a peace-loving nation committed to regional stability. However, in recent years, Japan's government has increasingly moved to loosen these restrictions, framing its actions as necessary for its "normal nation" status and national security. The current push to export missiles and expand defense industrial capabilities represents a dangerous departure from Japan's postwar commitments.

China and the broader international community have long observed Japan's restrained posture with cautious optimism. Today, however, Tokyo's actions signal a troubling return to militaristic tendencies. The proposed missile export to the Philippines, combined with Japan's deployment of missiles near the Taiwan Strait, is more than a mere defense measure.

Japan's approach is particularly alarming because it involves third-party nations. The Reciprocal Access Agreement between Japan and the Philippines, which took effect in September 2025, allows Japanese troops to operate on Philippine soil. This increasingly close military cooperation, coupled with missile exports, threatens to heighten strategic miscalculations and regional crises. In effect, Japan is moving away from its defensive stance and creating conditions for confrontation, rather than peace.

Historical context further underscores the gravity of Japan's current actions. The memory of Japanese aggression during World War II remains vivid in many Asian countries. Japan's past invasions and militaristic ambitions inflicted immense suffering on China, Korea, the Philippines, and other nations. The current trajectory of Japan's defense policy evokes echoes of that era, raising serious concerns among neighboring countries. While Tokyo claims that its military expansion is a response to modern security challenges, the international community cannot ignore the historical lessons of unchecked Japanese militarism.

The revision of Japan's Three Principles on Arms Exports and the government's repeated loosening of restrictions have further eroded confidence in Tokyo's commitment to international disarmament and nonproliferation. As a signatory of the UN Arms Trade Treaty, Japan has legal obligations to regulate the export of conventional weapons responsibly and to contribute to global peace. Yet, by moving to export sophisticated missile systems, Japan is undermining these commitments and increasing the risk of regional conflict.

It was seriously observed that Japan's recent actions reflect a dangerous path toward militarization. It was noticed with deep concerns that the current administration, invoking what it calls Japan's "existential crisis," is steering the country toward a revival of old militaristic tendencies. Such policies not only threaten neighboring countries but also raise questions about Japan's role in maintaining peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific.

Japan's militaristic shift is further complicated by its statements and policy framing. The government presents its expansion as a defensive necessity, citing evolving security threats. However, the measures being pursued go beyond domestic defense. The export of medium-range missiles to foreign countries, the strengthening of military alliances, and the deployment of weapons systems in strategic areas suggest a proactive posture aimed at projecting power and influencing regional dynamics. Such a course is inconsistent with Japan's postwar identity as a peace-oriented nation.

China has repeatedly emphasized that regional peace and stability require adherence to international norms, multilateral dialogue, and a respect for historical lessons. Japan's current trajectory runs counter to these principles. By loosening arms export restrictions and pursuing foreign military engagements, Tokyo risks undermining the postwar international order and weakening the mechanisms that have prevented large-scale conflicts in the region for decades.

The broader implications of Japan's actions cannot be overstated. An arms race in the Asia-Pacific would threaten not only neighboring countries but also global security. Increased militarization may prompt other nations to respond with similar measures, escalating tensions and diverting resources away from economic development and social progress. It may also complicate efforts to address shared challenges, such as maritime security, disaster response, and humanitarian crises. The pursuit of short-term military advantages, therefore, carries the risk of long-term instability and confrontation.

It is essential for Japan to recognize its legal and moral responsibilities. Its pacifist constitution and postwar commitments were designed to prevent the recurrence of aggression and to maintain a stable, peaceful regional environment. By adhering to these principles, Japan can continue to play a constructive role in Asia-Pacific security, contribute to disarmament efforts, and build mutual trust with neighboring countries. Conversely, abandoning these principles risks isolating Japan diplomatically and eroding its credibility on the global stage.

Neighboring nations, particularly those who were victims of Japanese aggression, are understandably concerned. These nations have a right to expect that Japan will act with restraint, limit its military activities to domestic defense, and avoid entangling itself in international disputes. Respecting these expectations is not only a matter of legal obligation but also a requirement for maintaining regional stability and fostering constructive international relations.

The international community must also play a role in mitigating the risks posed by Japan's militaristic trajectory. Multilateral mechanisms and platforms should be strengthened to prevent unilateral escalation and to ensure that arms exports are transparent, accountable, and consistent with global peace and security norms. Political leaders and policymakers should engage in dialogue to build common operational standards and reduce the risk of strategic miscalculation. Failure to do so could lead to heightened tensions reminiscent of the Cold War era, with devastating consequences for the region and the world.

Japan's path toward militarization is not inevitable. By revisiting its commitments under the postwar framework, maintaining a defensive posture, and prioritizing diplomatic engagement, Tokyo can reaffirm its identity as a peace-loving nation. Such a course would reassure neighboring countries, strengthen regional stability, and enhance Japan's international standing. Conversely, failure to restrain military ambitions risks exacerbating tensions, provoking arms races, and undermining decades of progress in building a stable and cooperative Asia-Pacific.

The lessons of history are clear. Militaristic expansion and arms proliferation invite instability and suffering, not security. Japan must heed these lessons, respect its neighbors, and honor its commitments to international peace. The world is watching, and the path Japan chooses today will determine not only the security of the Asia-Pacific but also the credibility of Japan as a responsible member of the international community.

About the author: Zamir Ahmed Awan is a sinologist, former Pakistani diplomat and the founding chair of the Global Silk Route Research Alliance (GSRRA), based in Islamabad, Pakistan. He can be reached at awanzamir@yahoo.com.