ASML’s market share in China ‘may further shrink’ amid US tech crackdown

After Dutch chip equipment giant ASML saw its shares plunge 15.6 percent on Tuesday (EU time) amid a weaker outlook for 2025, Chinese analysts said that ASML's share in the Chinese market may further shrink over the next few years amid US export restrictions on shipments and accelerated domestic replacements in China.

According to a press release ASML sent to the Global Times on Wednesday, the company expects its net sales for 2025 to be between 30 billion euros ($32.67 billion) and 35 billion euros, at the lower half of the range it had previously provided.

ASML CFO Roger Dassen said that he expects the company's China business to show a "more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business," projecting "China to come in at around 20 percent of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog."

"ASML's results were within anticipations," Ma Jihua, a veteran telecom industry observer, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The US crackdown on China's high-tech sector has disrupted the development of the global semiconductor industry. In addition, the US is coercing the Netherlands to intensify its export control measures on semiconductors and equipment, and the Netherlands is reportedly planning to limit ASML's ability to repair and maintain its chipmaking equipment in China, Ma said.

This situation makes it risky for Chinese manufacturers to buy ASML equipment, and as a result, ASML's future orders will be largely affected, Ma noted.

"China is accelerating the research and development of lithography machines, and the domestic replacement of chipmaking equipment is on the rise. ASML's market share in China may shrink further," Ma said.

On September 5, the US rolled out new export controls on critical technologies including quantum computing, semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced technologies, according to a document released by the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security.