Monsoon prediction bodes well for Indian inflation concerns: report

NEW DELHI, April 25 (Xinhua) -- The Indian financial ministry's monthly economic review (March 2024) released Thursday said the forecast of an above-normal monsoon in 2024 bodes well for a good harvest and may ease the country's inflation concerns.

The report said India's economic performance has remained robust despite global challenges and geopolitical concerns.

"Retail inflation in FY2023-24 witnessed a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with core inflation dropping to 3.3 percent in March 2024. Further, a predicted above-normal monsoon in 2024 bodes well for a good harvest, easing inflation concerns," said the report.

Last week India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the country is likely to receive above average monsoon rainfall in 2024. Since agricultural activity in India is largely dependent on the monsoon, it will likely boost farm output.

The March review stated that the global trade is estimated to have contracted in 2023, driven by reduced demand in developed nations and trade weaknesses, coupled with a decline in global commodity prices. This, in turn, led to a moderation in India's merchandise exports and imports.

The report mentions India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all-time high in March 2024, sufficient to cover 11 months of projected imports and more than 100 percent of total external debt.