Key meeting works as compass for China's economy in 2024

Containers are loaded onto a cargo vessel in Qinzhou Port, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, a transit point on the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor. [PHOTO/XINHUA]

The annual Central Economic Work Conference concluded on Tuesday in Beijing detailed China's economic goals and policy direction, providing a guiding compass for the year ahead, industry experts said, China Securities Journal reported on Wednesday.

The tone-setting meeting emphasized that macro policies for the upcoming year need to pursue progress while ensuring stability, consolidating stability through progress, and adopting new approaches before phasing out older ones.

This includes reinforcing counter-cyclical measures, innovating policy tools, and enhancing policy coordination.

Here are some economic experts from different institutions sharing their insights regarding China's economic agenda for 2024 from the outcomes of the economic meetings.

An employee works on the production line of display screens at a tech firm in Hefei, Anhui province. [XIE CHEN/FOR CHINA DAILY]

Huang Wentao, chief economist with China Securities, said the central government's stance towards driving economic growth has become more proactive, China Securities Journal reported on Wednesday.

The meeting pointed out the idea of 'establishing the new before abolishing the old,' which Huang sees it as a signal of increased policy efforts aimed at improving the real estate sector next year.

He anticipates that China's economy will continue its internal fluctuations in recovery in 2024, with policies aiding in strengthening economic foundations.

Huang expects the economic growth target to be set at a relatively high level of around 5 percent.

Potential homebuyers look at a property model in Huai'an, Jiangsu province. [Photo/China News Service]

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said the policy side should maintain a stable growth direction during the further improvement of the macroeconomic landscape in 2024.

Departments should arrange for more policies that contribute to demand expansion, strengthen the coordination of various types of policies and form policy synergies, he said, according to China Securities Journal.

Workers process textile products at a home textile company in Wendeng district of Weihai, East China's Shandong province, July 21, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]

Cheng Shi, chief economist at ICBC International, told China News Service this year's meeting emphasized the importance of high-quality development, particularly in fostering technological innovation and internal growth momentum.

The policy tone placed greater focus on the coordination and coherence among macro policies, said Cheng. Through a combination of fiscal and monetary policies, the objective is to stabilize market expectations and bolster confidence among economic actors.

He noted the meeting stressed the significance of effectively expanding demand. The fundamental role of consumption and the critical role of investment need to be leveraged to promote a beneficial interplay between the two.

This strategy aims to create a positive cycle between consumption and investment, effectively offsetting potential pressures from a contraction in external demand, thereby strengthening the domestic economic cycle.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, a global investment management company, told China News Service that the Chinese government introduced optimistic policies to respond to market volatility.

Hooper remains upbeat about China's 2024 stock market outlook and believes the market is expected to have further policy measures.

Introducing stimulus policies is important for uplifting consumer sentiment and, by extension, investor confidence. Pro-business policies garner positive investor reactions, she said.

Future real estate-targeted policies will reassure both investors and consumers, signaling proactive efforts by the government to drive positive market changes.

A cashier at a bank in Taiyuan, Shanxi province counts renminbi notes. [Photo/China News Service]

Ming Ming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, said that the tone-setting meeting regarding monetary policy might suggest the government's intention to increase the broad money supply into the real economy.

With inflation data declining over the past two months, there's a stronger chance of interest rate cuts or reductions in the reserve requirement ratio before the end of this year, Ming told China News Service.

Ming said the meeting continues to convey positive signals in terms of fiscal policy. Mentioning the need to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and strengthen financial support for major national strategic tasks, next year's fiscal approach might lean more towards sectors related to people's livelihoods and social security.

The meeting highlighted the importance of effectively implementing structural tax reductions and fee cuts, suggesting a further decrease in tax burdens for some enterprises and residents, Ming added.