U.S. economist says Chinese economy expected to deliver solid rebound in 2023

Trucks wait to load containers at a container terminal in Rizhao, east China's Shandong Province, March 28, 2022. (Xinhua/Guo Xulei)

Looking ahead to 2023, "the Chinese economy will be strong," and "will be a bright spot in the world," providing "a node of support in terms of global demand," a senior U.S. economist has said.

NEW YORK, Dec. 22 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese economy is poised to deliver solid rebound next year, bolstered by its underlying strength and policy stimulus, a senior U.S. economist has said.

"2023 should be a rebound year, there's a lot of stimulus now in investment," Albert Keidel, a development economist specializing in East Asia, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

"With low inflation, China is in a good position to use its countercyclical tools to stimulate the economy now and in 2023," he said, adding that "the underlying economy remains healthy."

Keidel, an adjunct professor of economics at George Washington University, said China's economy has maintained resilience amid challenges from COVID incursions and a complex international environment.

Sectors such as high-tech, e-economy and e-commerce sales have presented a strong momentum, evidenced in key economic indicators so far this year, he said.

"The strong point is investment levels are quite high, particularly public investments," which also bodes well for continued expansion next year and beyond, noted Keidel, previously a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank.

This photo taken on Nov. 4, 2022 shows an evening view of the Lujiazui area in east China's Shanghai. (Xinhua/Wang Xiang)

Moreover, the substantial increase of foreign direct investment in the Chinese mainland showed "a lot of confidence there" from global investors, he said.

The economist, also a former senior economist at the World Bank's Beijing office, said China's COVID-19 policy over the past three years has helped minimize the disruption to the structure and organization of the labor force, laying a foundation for the economy.

As China is making efforts to optimize its pandemic response, more potential in the economy will be unleashed, in particular in the fields that require face-to-face services such as restaurants and catering, he said.

Looking ahead to 2023, "the Chinese economy will be strong," and "will be a bright spot in the world," providing "a node of support in terms of global demand," said Keidel.

The expert, who authored "China's Economic Challenge: Unconventional Success," a book analyzing economic strategies that have boosted China's decades of rapid development, said he is confident about China's sustained growth.

A staff member demonstrates the payment with China's digital yuan, or the e-CNY, during the first Global Digital Trade Expo in Hangzhou, east China's Zhejiang Province, Dec. 12, 2022. (Xinhua/Xu Yu)

The combination of smart investment at a high share of gross domestic product (GDP) plus well-managed macro demand through policies in a sophisticated system is a key formula that has kept China's growth at a very healthy level for several decades in the past, he said, adding that same force will continue to drive China's economic development.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing last week noted that China's economic performance in 2023 is expected to witness an overall recovery and improvement.

Elaborating on the fiscal and monetary, industrial, science and technology, and social policies for 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference made economic stability a top priority and demanded pursuing steady progress while ensuring economic stability for the next year.

China has also pledged to further expand domestic demand and to give full play to the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment in 2023, according to a meeting convened by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee earlier this month.