CANBERRA, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- Australia's Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has warned of a bumpy road to economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

Frydenberg said on Monday that the Treasury's analysis found that Australia's effective unemployment will top 13 percent again in the coming months.

Effective unemployment takes into account unemployed people looking for work, those who have stopped looking for work and people who are technically employed but are working zero hours.

The figure was 9.9 percent in July, down from a peak of more than 14 percent in April, compared to an official unemployment rate -- which only measures unemployed people actively looking for work -- of 7.5 percent.

Frydenberg said that the figure would spike again with up to 400,000 people in Victoria expected to lose their jobs as a result of the state's second COVID-19 lockdown and that's why "it is vitally important we get the virus under control."

According to the data, 700,000 of the 1.3 million Australians who lost their jobs or were stood down with zero hours since the crisis have regained work.

"The nation is clearly at two different stages: there is Victoria and there is the rest," Frydenberg said in an opinion piece which was published by The Australian on Monday.

"Outside Victoria, the number of people on unemployment benefits is about 3 percent below the peak in May. In Victoria, it's 3 percent above."

"With Victoria a quarter of the national economy, getting it back on track is critical to the nation's recovery. Victoria's success will be Australia's success."

Frydenberg said the next has been the targeted measures to boost aggregate demand, increase flexibility in the labor market and improve training opportunities for workforce to create more jobs, following the wage subsidy package and some other measures as the first phase of the response.

"These are extraordinary and difficult times. While many people are continuing to do it tough, there are lights at the end of this tunnel," he said.