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Economists foresee slow recovery from COVID-19-induced recession: NABE survey

(Xinhua)    09:10, August 25, 2020

WASHINGTON, Aug. 24 (Xinhua) -- Almost half of the respondents expect inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to remain below pre-pandemic level until the second half of 2022 or later, according to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey released Monday.

NABE President and KPMG chief economist Constance Hunter noted that 80 percent of panelists indicated there is at least a one-in-four chance of a "double-dip" recession.

The 235 NABE members, surveyed between July 30 and Aug. 10, were split on U.S. Congress' fiscal response to the recession, with 40 percent calling it insufficient, 37 percent regarding it as adequate, while 11 percent saying it is excessive.

The semiannual NABE Economic Policy Survey was released as Democratic leaders and White House officials remain deadlocked over the next round of COVID-19 relief package, a few weeks after the extra 600-dollar weekly unemployment benefits expired.

"Nearly three out of four panelists believe the optimal size for the next fiscal package to be $1 trillion or greater, compared to 17 percent who favor a smaller package," Hunter said.

More than three-quarters of panelists believe that the current stance of U.S. monetary policy is appropriate, "the largest share holding this view since 2007," said Survey Chair Gregory Daco, who is also chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Some 58 percent expects the federal funds rate range to remain unchanged at 0-0.25 percent, or even drop lower, by the end of 2021, the survey showed. Most participants expect that the funds rate target will be higher by the end of 2022, but still within 100 basis points of where it is currently.

An overwhelming majority (88 percent) of respondents is at least "somewhat" concerned with federal public debt being on track to surpass 100 percent of GDP, higher than at any time since the World War II, according to the survey.

In terms of the optimal way for Congress to increase revenues, 55 percent favor a broad-based energy or carbon tax, while 51 percent support broadening of the individual and/or corporate tax bases.

Some 39 percent of respondents support increasing individual income tax rates, and 38 percent support lifting corporate tax rates. Support for a wealth tax jumped most significantly since the February 2020 survey -- from 24 percent to 36 percent in August.

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Web editor: Wen Ying, Bianji)

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