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China may lose its title as the world’s most populous country in the first half of the 21st century, as the country is expected to enter a period of negative population growth, a report warned on Thursday.
Green Book of Population and Labor published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Social Sciences Academic Press predicts that China’s population will reach a peak of 1.442 billion in 2029.
Starting in the year 2030, China will continue to see negative growth. By 2050, the population will decrease to 1.364 billion and by 2065, 1.248 billion, which is about the same as 1996. However, if the total fertility rate remains at 1.6 (1.6 children per woman), negative population growth will occur at or around 2027 and the population size will be reduced to 1.172 billion in 2065, equivalent to that of 1990, according to the report.
China has long been acting to tackle the possible risks associated with negative population growth and an aging society.
In 2013, the central government proposed a two-child policy for couples if one of them comes from a single child family. In 2015, the policy was applied to all couples, regardless if they come from a single child family. Local authorities have also taken steps to offer more support and encouragement to families with second children.
In 2016, the number of births of a second child increased sharply and further increased to 8.83 million in 2017, an increase of 1.62 million over 2016, and the proportion of second-child births reached 51.2%, an increase of 11 percentage points over 2016.
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