"This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade toward Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets," the agency said.
Growth in oil consumption by emerging economies, particularly for transport in China, India and the Middle East, will push global oil consumption steadily higher by 2035.
The world's oil demand will reach 99.7 mb/d and the average IEA crude oil import price will rise to $125 per barrel (in year 2011 dollar terms) by 2035, the report says.
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economic Research at Xiamen University, said: "Increasing oil imports from Iraq is very possible and beneficial for China. Compared with other countries in the Middle East, Iraq is relatively stable at present, but we still should be aware of the risks."
He also said China should look to Canada for energy supply, but one analyst suggested Canada cannot make significant progress in a short time.
"Canada is rich in unconventional energy such as oil sands (a type of petroleum deposit)," said Li Li, senior analyst at ICIS C1 Energy, a Shanghai-based energy information consultancy. "But conservative forces in Canada are not very open to foreign investors in the energy field."
He uses the CNOOC-Nexen deal is an example.
Canada has twice delayed a judgment over whether to permit the $15.1 billion bid by CNOOC, China's leading offshore oil and gas producer, for Canadian oil company Nexen Inc, despite shareholders giving it their backing.
Li said the Middle East will continue to be an important crude oil supplier for China. Africa, South America and the Caspian Sea will also play more important roles in China's crude imports, she said.
More than 10 percent of China's crude imports are from South America, with an annual growth rate of 20 percent, according to C1 Energy.
Birol said China will be a major driver of global production and consumption of natural gas as Beijing increases its efforts at diversifying its energy mix to achieve more sustainable growth.
The IEA predicts that active policy support and regulatory reforms will push China's consumption of natural gas from around 130 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2011 to 545 bcm in 2035.
Birol said: "I expect China's shale gas production will increase significantly. Also, China will be the leader in the world in terms of the use of renewable energy."
These changes will have implications for the price of energy in different countries, as China's electricity prices in 2035 will be three times cheaper than those in Europe and four times cheaper than in Japan, he said.
Birol also said China faces three major challenges: improving energy efficiency as much as possible, increasing shale gas production to reduce the use of coal and imported gas, and pushing forward low-carbon technologies, such as nuclear power and renewable energy.
Contact the writers at lixiang@chinadaily.com.cn and dujuan@chinadaily.com.cn
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