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China to become largest economy 'in 4 years'

By Hu Xiaocen (Shanghai Daily)

08:33, November 12, 2012

CHINA is expected to become the world's largest economy in four years as the balance of economic power is forecast to shift over the next five decades, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development has forecast.

Fast-growing emerging economies will account for an ever-increasing share of global output in the next half century, it said, and China's gross domestic product will surpass the eurozone's this year.

The United States is expected to cede its place as the world's largest economy to China as early as 2016, according to the latest OECD report.

However, analyst John Ross, a visiting professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, said it could take a bit longer for China to top the list.

"I think this is a bit exaggerated. It will take five to seven years to happen," he said.

The OECD also said that India's GDP was expected to pass that of the US over the long term. The combined output of China and India would exceed the current Group of Seven economies' GDP by around 2025, and by 2060 it would be more than one and a half times larger, whereas in 2010 China and India accounted for less than half of the G7's output.

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