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Interview: OECD economists see China continuous growing amid challenges (2)

(Xinhua)

11:15, November 11, 2012

She warned that ageing will be a quite severe challenge in China in the near future as the labor force will decline "which will put a downward pressure on growth in China."

However, her report showed that China's share in the global GDP will rise from today's 17 percent up to 28 percent in 2030 and remain at the level till 2060. It is expected to surpass the United States becoming the largest world economy in a few years.

The report also projected that the combined GDP of China and India will surpass that of the G7 economies by around the year of 2025 and exceed that of the entire 34-member OECD bloc by the year of 2060.

"We do see a recovery in China. The only question is how to sustain a relatively high rate of growth," Gurria said.

In his view, concerns about the bubbles and the overheating have subsided, and now "the policy is more accommodating and more geared towards growth again."

He advised China to be more focus on "manage that curve" and deal with the questions of migration, ageing, environment and energy technologies.

He also called to accommodate a process "where there is a structural transformation of the productive model, which is increasingly moving towards knowledge and less towards labor and by accommodating millions of those who will have much higher and better skills and will be producing more high value-added products than simply producing labor."

He urged China to have more "knowledge-based input into the growth pattern," as he notes that the buildup of skills will add significantly to the economy in some lower income countries with low levels of education, including China.

Efforts should also be made to improve social services and social safety to boost people's confident in the future so that they are willing to spend and invest more rather than save money.

"So, you have a combined element of impressive transformation, you have a focus on domestic demand, which you do by delivering health and social services," Gurria stressed, adding that equity in the benefits of growth is very important.

Gurria hailed China's "Five-Year Plan" a workable way to show people the nation's goal and the roadmap of the development, referring it to a policy-based solution but also a very important communications-based solution, "in a context in which you do not run into conflicts with the rest of the world," a way mean you can develop but "avoiding or minimizing the number of conflicts that you have on the economic side."

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