Japan's deepening domestic divisions and the attempt to mask governance weakness by shifting pressures outward

Japan's recent foreign policy has displayed a pronounced tendency toward adventurism and confrontation. This is particularly evident in its approach toward China, where Tokyo has adopted frequent moves and increasingly hardline rhetoric on issues related to Taiwan, maritime affairs, and security policy, repeatedly testing political red lines. These developments are not accidental. They are the external manifestation of deepening domestic governance difficulties and accumulating political and social contradictions within Japan. In essence, this is a risky choice: using external toughness to conceal internal weakness, and employing security narratives to deflect development anxieties.

Japan's 51st House of Representatives election on Feb. 8 granted the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party more than a two-thirds majority. On the surface, the governing foundation appears strengthened. Yet expecting seat advantage alone to produce a sweeping political turnaround is overly optimistic.

At the domestic political level, imbalance and fatigue in Japan's governance system are becoming increasingly evident. Senior LDP figures are reportedly concerned that the election victory could pave the way for an increasingly Takaichi-dominated decision-making structure within the party. Divisions between ruling and opposition camps over livelihood policies, shifts in security strategy, and fiscal resource allocation continue to intensify, while the space for policy consensus steadily narrows. On key reform agendas—economic restructuring, social security system reform, and responses to rapid aging and declining birth rates—Japan's political establishment has struggled to forge stable and sustainable consensus. Implementation capacity has also declined.

Faced with these deep-rooted challenges, Japan's leadership has not prioritized political integration or institutional repair. Instead, they are relying on foreign policy issues to generate political momentum. By amplifying security risks and exaggerating so-called "external threats," the government seeks to generate political momentum and redirect public attention. This reflects an evasion of domestic governance difficulties and a short-term, emotion-driven policy orientation.

From a socio-economic perspective, Japan's long-standing structural problems remain fundamentally unresolved. Despite calls for "proactive fiscal policy" by the LDP, declining industrial competitiveness, a heavy fiscal deficit burden, and limited monetary policy space persist. These challenges are compounded by the profound impact of demographic decline. For many citizens, income growth remains sluggish, living costs are rising, and social mobility is perceived to be shrinking. Anxiety about the future is spreading across society.

Yet against this backdrop, Japan's political forces have failed to build reform consensus, and decisive policy breakthroughs remain elusive. Strengthening security narratives and advancing military expansion, however, have become convenient policy outlets. Sharp increases in defense spending and a continued rightward shift in security policy are packaged as necessary responses to "crisis." Such moves are neither responsible nor rational.

Japan's overall foreign policy posture has grown more forward-leaning and confrontational, with its China policy the most prominent and most disruptive. Tokyo repeatedly manufactures issues concerning China and portrays China as the "greatest strategic challenge." This narrative is unfounded and seriously deviates from the political foundation of China–Japan relations. It constitutes a blatant interference in China's internal affairs and gravely violates the one-China principle and the consensus established in the four China–Japan political documents.

Meanwhile, Japan continues to play up maritime issues, promoting the concept of a "Free and Open Indo-Pacific" while heightening tensions in the East China Sea and South China Sea. By drawing in extra-regional forces and encouraging bloc confrontation, Japan attempts to reshape the regional security landscape. The underlying motive is clear: to cater to its domestic conservative forces, project toughness toward China, and construct a so-called "external threat" narrative to deflect pressures arising from economic stagnation, social anxiety, and political dysfunction. Japan's policy toward China has thus become a major outlet through which Japan seeks to export domestic contradictions. Shaped by ideological bias and security anxiety, this approach lacks strategic rationality and is unsustainable. China will not allow such developments to proceed unchecked.

At times in the past, when domestic political and economic difficulties intensified and social contradictions sharpened, Japan turned outward in search of solutions through military adventurism. Such paths did not resolve internal problems but instead brought profound disasters to Japan itself and to many Asian countries. Today's Japan should draw lessons from history, uphold the post-World War II international system centered on the United Nations and the international order based on international law, rather than revisiting the old path of militarism.

Facts have repeatedly shown that exporting domestic crises offers no way out, and confrontation cannot solve development challenges. Japan should engage in serious reflection on its history of aggression, cease strategic risk-taking and probing, and focus on addressing its internal contradictions. Any attempt to mask governance failure through external toughness in pursuit of short-term political gains will ultimately prove a grave miscalculation.

China and Japan are inseparable neighbors. Cooperation for mutual benefit is the only correct choice. Only by adhering to the principles of the four China–Japan political documents, respecting each other's core interests and major concerns, and playing a constructive rather than disruptive role in regional cooperation can Japan truly safeguard its long-term interests and contribute to regional peace and stability.