Commentary: China's economy to further recover despite challenges

BEIJING, Jan. 17 (Xinhua) -- China's gross domestic product posted growth of 5.2 percent year on year in 2023, meeting the government's target of around 5 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Wednesday.

The rate is much higher than the projected global growth rate of around 3 percent, and takes the leading position among the world's major economies. China's economy is expected to contribute more than 30 percent to world economic growth in 2023, and is the largest engine of world economic growth.

The performance manifests the resilience and capacity of the world's second-largest economy to further recover and progress in 2024, with the clear-minded leadership resolved to tackle domestic problems facing the economy and brave mounting uncertainties and unfavorable factors from the outside, releasing timely and pragmatic policies and measures for both the short-term and long run.

It has also taught those exaggerating naysayers a fresh lesson that their repeated theories about the collapse or crisis of the Chinese economy throughout last year have proved out-and-out fantasies, as they have been time and again.

As we observe the Chinese economic recovery, it should be noted that its feat of growth in terms of both quantity and quality has been secured as the nation withstood external pressures, overcame internal difficulties, and deepened reform and opening up, after three years of COVID-19 prevention and control.

Although China's economic recovery experienced some fluctuations on a quarterly basis, its momentum never petered out. Rather, new tech-based growth drivers, ranging from the new-energy vehicle sector to smart and high-end manufacturing to artificial intelligence, have developed and expanded substantially, propelling the economy on a course of sustained overall recovery.

For example, investment in China's high-tech industries increased by 10.3 percent year on year in 2023. Specifically, investment in the sectors of high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services expanded by 9.9 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively, the NBS data showed.

2024 marks the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and is a crucial year for implementing the country's 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). But it is no easy task for China to do a good job of economic work and achieve further recovery in the coming year, given the various difficulties and challenges, including a lack of effective demand, weak social expectations, hidden risks, and an external environment that is increasingly complex, severe and uncertain.

According to Gao Ruidong, chief economist at Everbright Securities, in the short term, the scarring effect of the pandemic, the overall downturn in overseas demand, and the "de-risking" measures adopted by Europe and the United States are among the factors leading to low consumption expectations and the weak investment confidence of enterprises, which necessitates more policies to stabilize growth and expectations.

Citing mounting geopolitical tensions, lower demand in developed countries, an uptick in trade-restrictive measures, and elongated supply chains, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said the outlook for global trade in 2024 remains "highly uncertain" and "generally pessimistic."

Yet the unique features and strengths of the Chinese economy provide the basic confidence, potential and strong resilience to address any problems and challenges that may lie ahead and to move upward, possibly amid twists and turns. China is the only country with industries across all categories in the U.N. industrial classification. The added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for around 30 percent of the global total, ranking first in the world for 14 consecutive years. China's supersize market offers a big stage for various businesses and talents.

Flourishing innovation creates new growth drivers in China. China has some 400,000 high-tech enterprises and ranks second globally in the number of unicorn companies. The number of invention patents in China grew 22.4 percent year on year to reach 4.02 million by the end of 2023, making the country the first in the world, with more than 4 million valid invention patents, official statistics show.

"China is sure to keep its overall trend of economic recovery and long-term improvement. The so-called 'Peak China' theory in the West is totally untenable," said Tang Duoduo, a researcher in macroeconomics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

With solid and sound fundamentals, as well as huge growth space in fields such as green transformation and new urbanization, China's economy will remain steadfast as a major stabilizer and source of power of the global economic growth in the coming years.