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News Analysis: Asian currencies to be more volatile next year amid strengthening of U.S. dollar

By Tan Shih Ming (Xinhua)    13:11, December 02, 2014
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SINGAPORE, Dec. 2 -- As a U.S. dollar strengthened to above 1.30 Singapore dollar mark recently for the first time since late 2011, analysts said Asian currencies are poised to fluctuate more next year than this year in the face of strong greenback.

Singapore dollar, well known as a safe-haven currency in Asia, was not spared in the recent wave of depreciation among Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar.

Singapore dollar sustained heavy pressure recently ahead of the release of U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes, reaching as high as 1.3101 against the greenback in early trade of Nov. 20 before falling to near 1.30 levels.

UOB Global Economics and Market Research said that further U.S. strength towards 1.3453 Singapore dollars would not be surprising by the first quarter next year, based on the current trajectory.

Indeed, the past few weeks have been tough for most Asian currencies, with some not only weakening versus the greenback, but also versus the Euro. As HSBC Global Research pointed out, the weakening of Asian currencies gives a glimpse of what to expect in 2015, when higher volatility could be more common and Asian foreign exchange returns will likely continue to weaken. Even the Chinese yuan will be more predisposed to periods of higher volatility.

This higher volatility, said ABN Amro Research, has much to do with the further rally of the U.S. dollar ahead. The dollar rally will be sustained by the strong momentum of U.S. economy in the coming two years, as fundamentals of the world's biggest economy are improving, its fiscal deficit has declined at a rapid pace and current account deficit is at sustainable levels.

The outlook of the greenback also looked bright amid wide expectation that the U.S. monetary policy will start tightening in 2015, and other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan, will continue to increase monetary stimulus to guard against too low inflation and to support their economies.

But as which currencies would remain more resilient than their Asian peers, HSBC said the picture became less clear when the policy actions of ECB and the Bank of Japan came into play too.

While Asian currencies with relatively sound external balances such as Chinese yuan, South Korean won and Singapore dollar would hold up better, more policy actions of ECB and the Bank of Japan will fuel a stronger greenback against which even these Asian currencies could only fall.

Furthermore, Asian policy-makers could also be less inclined to curb local currency weakness with the same vigor as they may have done in the past, since inflation is falling in many economies and growth outlooks slowing.

Interestingly, the Asian currencies hit hardest last year when the Federal Reserve first announced tapering of monetary stimulus program, namely Indian rupee and Indonesia rupiah, have been remarkably stable of late. While saying their strength may be temporary, HSBC attributed their current resilience to market perception of notable adjustment and some prudent choices such as building foreign exchange reserves, reducing subsidies and focusing on reforms that both governments had introduced.

(Editor:Yuan Can、Liang Jun)
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