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Emerging markets: Not yet end of growth story


21:18, July 31, 2013

After leaving the world spellbound with a decade of stunning economic performance, emerging markets have now found themselves at a crossroads.

Facing worsening global economic pains that have left many developed powers in disarray, the emerging markets, once the sprinters of the world economy, are seeing an obvious slowdown in growth.

A wave of pessimism about the emerging-market economic outlook has begun to spread and sparked market overreaction. Some U.S. and European investment agencies have even forecast "the death of the emerging-market growth story."

However, seen from a wider perspective, the prospects are not so gloomy. A slower pace of growth might just herald a new round of policy adjustment and bolder reform initiatives, rather than mark the end of the growth miracle.

Barclays CEO Antony Jenkins said the turbulence in emerging markets in recent months was mainly due to short-term capital flow in the chase of higher returns, and most experts believed this would not deal a fatal blow to emerging markets.

It is true the challenges the emerging markets face are grave: capital flight, export decline and moribund stock markets. But it is unnecessary to stretch the problem and fret about it inordinately.

The growth of the emerging economies may not be as dazzling as before, but, even at a slower pace, they will remain a major contributor to world economic growth from the medium- and long-term perspectives.

As many economists point out, emerging markets still have an edge when it comes to population, and they boast huge domestic market demand.

Ruchir Sharma, managing director of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said emerging nations still represented 80 percent of the world's population, and just 40 percent of global GDP, so there was room for growing prosperity.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast more than half the world's growth in consumption demand would come from emerging markets from 2011 to 2015, and their export growth would account for about 40 percent of the world's trade growth. With a huge and diversified consumption demand, the emerging powers will serve as an engine for sustained world economic growth.

Moreover, the growth potential of the emerging markets is unlikely to abate, taking their economic fundamentals into consideration, and the risk control ability of these countries has been considerably enhanced.

The IMF projected emerging markets would grow 6 percent annually from 2013 to 2018, a pace still much faster than that of the advanced economies and the world average.

Deutsche Bank also said in a July report that, compared to 2008, the ability to withstand external shocks has been strengthened in all emerging markets, except for Turkey.

The road of development may be bumpy for the emerging markets, but their growth story is by no means reaching its end.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs Lloyd C. Blankfein has said, new opportunities always come with challenges, and emerging markets still yield the highest returns and they will still serve as another engine for global economic growth.

Email|Print|Comments(Editor:LiQian、Gao Yinan)

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