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J.P. Morgan lowers China GDP growth forecast


18:36, July 15, 2013

BEIJING, July 15 (Xinhua) -- J.P. Morgan has revised down its estimate on China's 2013 year-on-year economic growth rate from 7.6 percent to 7.4 percent, lower than the government's official target of 7.5 percent.

The 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) growth has now been forecast at 7.2 percent year on year, down from the previous forecast of 7.7 percent, said Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairwoman of global markets, China at J.P. Morgan on Monday.

The government has reiterated its improved tolerance toward the slowdown of GDP growth, she said at a press conference after the government announced its second-quarter GDP growth to be 7.5 percent year on year.

The official figure came down from the 7.7-percent growth logged in the first quarter, and it is also lower than last year's 7.8 percent, the lowest in 13 years.

Ulrich predicted the service sector and high-end manufacturing will be new growth engines and should boost the country's economic transformation.

The slowdown of GDP growth in the second quarter will not trigger a change in policy stances, said Haibin Zhu, J.P. Morgan China Chief Economist in an email statement.

The second-quarter GDP report suggests that the growth momentum seems to have bottomed out from the first-quarter disappointment; however, the improvement is only marginal, Zhu said.

"The new government made it clear that it is willing to tolerate slower growth for a better quality of growth, and economic restructuring is the priority task going ahead," he added.

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