SINGAPORE, June 13 (Xinhua) -- While most Asian stock markets have slumped since May because of worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve may scale back its quantitative easing program, experts say the fears of sooner-than-expected end of quantitative easing by the U.S. central bank are likely to keep Asian stocks on tenterhooks for some time to come before recovery.
Asian investors had been on the buying spree during the first few months of this year on hope that the world's major central banks would continue pursuing expansionary policies, particularly following the European Central Bank's interest rate cut in early May.
But improving U.S. economic data fueled speculation about a premature end to the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, which roiled regional markets since late May. Yield-related stocks, such as banks and property companies, bore the brunt of the sell-off, while the Japanese market corrected sharply on profit-taking.
By this week, the Japanese market has fallen more than 20 percent since May 23, the day it touched the year-high. Many other Asian bourses also dropped to their fresh lows for the year to date.
Aberdeen Asset Management Asia said the big sell-off arose across the regional bourses because markets have become too dependent on central banks' money printing to sustain asset price rises. With the U.S. showing more signs of recovery, there is an increasing likelihood that these liquidity-driven capital inflows will slow eventually.
But the economic fundamentals in Asia still appear robust, corporate profits are generally still on a growth trajectory and valuations remain reasonable, so investors should not be too alarmed by this round of price correction, the fund management house said.
French bank BNP Paribas also said that the stock valuations are increasingly stretched as the rally in the past months has been fed so far by central banks' liquidity.
As the global economic cycle is weak and the recovery will continue to disappoint, market worries about global growth have returned, as shown clearly in recent weakness in commodities, and emerging markets. At this juncture, BNP Paribas believed there is still considerable complacency with many continuing to expect a recovery around the corner.
Though concerns about the Federal Reserve starting to taper asset purchases may have seemed overdone, BNP Paribas still maintains neutral stance on Asian equities for now. Only when the negative economic momentum and corporate earnings are stabilized will the French bank see values in battered stocks and pick them up again.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch Research, however, sounded a more upbeat note. It agreed that the prospect that the Federal Reserve will taper its asset purchase program will inevitably cause the Asian bourses to lose some of the liquidity they enjoyed previously, but the ultimate impact on the stock prices would probably be limited.
"The reason for tapering would be a stronger economy," it said, "economic growth would likely be strong enough to generate better earnings." With stronger earnings and economic fundamentals, the markets in the region are likely to resume their uptrend after this round of price drop.
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