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China's steel industry in slow recovery

(China Economic Net)

13:39, February 27, 2013

In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Steel Industry Prosperity Index was 96.5, which was generally level with the previous quarter; CE Steel Industry Warning Index was 63.3, dropped by 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter, and it was still in a relatively cold state.

Look back to the 2012, the iron and steel industry prosperity showed a constant decline trend. On one hand, it was affected by the slowdown growth rate of domestic investment, the slack rebound in the demand for steel of the downstream industries; on the other hand, it was constrained by the serious surplus capacity of the iron and steel industry, and it was also related to the continued destocking process of the iron and steel industry. The macroeconomic rebound trend in the fourth quarter of 2012 and even in 2013 is conducive to the improvement of the operation of the steel industry, but the recovery of the prosperity may be a relatively long process.

Prosperity Index lays the foundation and it will go steady

In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE steel industry prosperity index was 96.5 (the growth rate of 2003 = 100), which was generally level with the previous quarter; the declining trend of the last three quarters was terminated and the prosperity index tended to be steady.

Among the six indicators constituting the CE Steel Industry Prosperity Index, the main business income, total taxes, number of employees and total profit (growth rate) increased to some extent, while there was a decline in exports and the total investment in fixed assets (growth rate). With the random factors being further eliminated, China's Iron and Steel Industry Prosperity Index was 95.1, with a marginal increase of 0.1 point compared with the previous quarter and a decline of 1.4 points compared with the Prosperity Index of the random factors that has not been eliminated. This indicates that the introduction of the measures of steady growth and the expected effect of accelerating the development of urbanization curbs the decline trend of the prosperity of the iron and steel industry to some extent.

The warning index is relatively colder

In the fourth quarter, China's steel industry warning index was 63.3, dropped by 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter, and it was in the critical point, indicating that the current steel industry is still in a relatively colder state. Comprehensively, the operation of the steel industry in this quarter will be at low levels and go steady.

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