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CASS: 2013 economic blue book published


09:08, December 06, 2012

China’s top think tank published its Economic Blue Book in Beijing on Wednesday. The book suggests the government should maintain a stable fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy next year despite expectations for slower economic growth.

Allowing a slower but healthier growth rate - that’s the message from the annual economic blue book released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences .

Xie Sisi, Beijing, said,"According to the 2013 Economic Blue Book ,the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy is predicted to slow to 8.2 percent next year.The forecast rate is still relatively rapid and stable, and it is higher than the World Bank’s outlook of 8.1 percent for 2013."

The book says this year, GDP growth is likely to slump to 7.7 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than in 2011, because of the gloomy global economic recovery and weak external demand.

In the first three quarters of this year, export growth rate dropped to 7.4 percent, down 15.3 percentage points year on year.

Li Xuesong, deputy director of Ins't of Quan. & Tech. Econ, CASS, said,"The slower GDP this year is mainly due to declines in external demand. Exports dropped significantly due to the European debt crisis but we do see a better picture for goods to emerging countries like Africa and Brazil. Moreover China’s actual fixed-asset investments and domestic consumption are higher than last year."

Inflation control may still be one of the most important tasks next year for the central government because of increasing labour costs and a potential surge in world commodity prices, although the consumer price index in recent months has indicated an easing pressure, with a forecast that the increase in the CPI in 2013 is likely to fall to 3 percent by the blue book.

The book also says “innovation and transformation ” are key for China’s economic development.

Li Xuesong said,"Transformation and Innovation are crucial because they effect China’s medium-long term development. For a country like China which has a huge population, it needs long term support from its manufacturing industry. And we have come to a stage where technology improvement is urgently needed."

Meanwhile the blue book indicates that China’s economy has entered a new stage of medium to rapid development. The book outlines expectations that the target set by the 18th CPC national congress of doubling the growth rate and people’s income in 2020 from 2010 levels will be met.

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