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Economy seen recovery after positive manufacturing data


08:41, November 26, 2012

Chinese economists believe the country's economy is recovering as latest statistics show positive signs.

The flash estimate for China HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), issued on Thursday, rose to 50.4 percent in November.

This is the first time it has risen above the 50-percent figure that demarcates expansion from contraction in the past 13 months.

The HSBC PMI prefers samples from small and medium-sized enterprises.

The rise is consistent with the Chinese official PMI, which rose above the crucial reading of growth or decline, to 50.2 percent in October from 49.8 percent in September.

"The Chinese economy is stabilizing and moving upwards," said Zhuang Jian, an economist at Asian Development Bank.

The growth rates of China's industry, investment, consumption and exports rebounded in September and October and the flash estimate for China HSBC PMI suggested better data in November than in October, Zhuang said.

Chinese economy will rebound slightly and the year-on-year growth rate will rise to 7.7 percent to 7.8 percent in the fourth quarter from 7.4 percent in the third quarter, said Wang Yiming, deputy director of Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.

The recovery has been underway since September due to a series of macroeconomic policies and recovering global market demand, said Zhang Liqun, a State Council Development Research Center analyst said.

Economic data in the past two months have suggested clues of recovery.

Industrial added-value output growth accelerated to 9.6 percent year-on-year in October, from 9.2 percent in September and 8.6 percent in August. Retail sales of consumer goods rose 14.5 percent from a year ago in October, compared with 14.1 percent in September and 13.2 percent in August.

Latest customs data showed China's exports in October posted the strongest monthly growth since May but imports remained weak.

Exports rose 11.6 percent from one year earlier in October while imports climbed 2.4 percent year-on-year last month, unchanged from the growth in September.

The country's consumer price index, a main gauge of inflation, dropped to a 33-month low of 1.7 percent last month.

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