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IEA cuts Q4 oil-demand forecast for a second time

(Shanghai Daily)

08:34, November 14, 2012

THE International Energy Agency yesterday lowered its world oil-demand forecast for this quarter for a second time, citing weakness in Europe's economy and disruption to United States fuel delivery and travel by Hurricane Sandy.

Global consumption in the period will average 90.1 million barrels a day, which is 290,000 barrels a day, or 0.3 percent, less than previously forecast, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report.

Demand will expand by 670,000 barrels a day this year to 89.6 million, the IEA said, shaving 60,000 barrels a day from its previous annual growth forecast.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to supply 30 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, 500,000 barrels a day less than in the IEA's previous projection because of the weaker demand outlook and expectations for increased non-OPEC supply. Global demand will rise by 830,000 barrels a day in 2013 to 90.4 million, 70,000 barrels less than last month's forecast.

"Weak demand from Europe won't go away, so the physical oversupply in the oil market is likely to stay longer," said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. "The gap between OPEC supply and demand for its crude is likely to remain high."

Hurricane Sandy battered the US East Coast in late October, trimming US oil demand that month, the IEA said. Several refineries are still shut for post-storm repairs, including Phillips 66's 238,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Bayway, New Jersey, and Hess Corp's 70,000-barrel-a-day Port Reading plant in the same state.

The IEA, an adviser to 28 industrialized nations, raised its 2013 forecast for non-OPEC supplies by 150,000 barrels to 54.1 million barrels a day.

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