West Asia and North Africa: Risk of unrest is difficult to eliminate

Conflicts based on race, religious sects, and interest groups are difficult to reconcile. The new government of South Sudan is weak and infighting between the Dinka and Nuer Tribes is proving hard to quell. Although the crisis may be easing, the fundamental problem is difficult to resolve. South Sudan faces the risk of further unrest.

Since the Second Egyptian Revolution in 2013, the military has tried to keep the situation under control. Naturally, the Muslim Brotherhood will not give up so easily. It is building its power base in preparation for seeking opportunities to start the battle afresh. Egypt, too, will struggle to avoid turbulence and chaos in the short term. If the ruling party in Turkey, which is close to the Muslim Brotherhood, continues to implement religion-based policies, this may aggravate the situation in Egypt.

Other countries such as Yemen and Libya are in difficult transition phases. The process of establishing stability will be disrupted by violence and unrest.

In 2014, terrorist forces will continue to expand their influence in West Asia and North Africa (WANA). Terrorist organizations including Nigeria's Boko Haram, Al- Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and the Somali Youth Party will strengthen links and turn the WANA region into a new hotbed of extremism and a center of terrorist activity.

Al Qaeda will increase its penetration and its attempts to create disruption in countries where its influence holds sway. In addition, terrorist activity in Kenya, Nigeria, Libya, Yemen and other countries may escalate.