Afghanistan: Reconstruction has many uncertainties

After more than a year of wrangling, the United States and Afghanistan recently reached an agreement on the final language of a bilateral security agreement.

However, Afghan President Hamid Karzai made a new request to postpone the signing of the agreement. The U.S. responded by threatening to withdraw its troops completely and cut off aid to Afghanistan unless Karzai signed the agreement as soon as possible.

On the one hand Karzai believes the U.S. will not abandon Afghanistan, in a bid to fight for more rights; on the other hand he needs to rid himself of his tainted reputation as a 'traitor'. The probability is that both sides will sign the agreement, but if the U.S. starts to implement full withdrawal from Afghanistan, there will be an intensification of unrest in the country.

The Afghan presidential election will be held on April 5 2014. In the current situation, whether the elections will be held on schedule, whether they will lead to unrest, and who will emerge victor, are all still open to question. The results of the election need to be recognized by the majority of the people, otherwise they will spark a further outbreak of civil unrest.

With the U.S. withdrawal, the Afghan national army and police will gradually assume independent responsibility for security; their capacity will be tested to the full.

The Afghan Taliban's strength has reduced greatly, it is less likely to stage a comeback, but its ability to derail the reconstruction of the country should not be underestimated. To seek greater political space after the US withdrawal, peace talks with moderate Taliban members are the most realistic choice - Taliban hardliners are inclined to bide their time until the "security vacuum" after the US withdrawal. It will be no easy matter to achieve lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan, since peace talks between Afghanistan government and Taliban have not even started.