Western use of force against Syria can't be ruled out

When conflict first broke out in Syria in 2011, the U.S. and its allies intervened immediately. The goal was to support the opposition in overthrowing the Assad government and thereby break up the Iran - Syria strategic alliance.

In August 2013 the Assad government found itself in a critical situation, when the U.S. accused it of killing hundreds of civilians in chemical weapons attacks. Ready to use military force against Syria, the U.S. and France prepared to deploy troops. At the critical moment, Russia's proposal to "exchange chemical weapons for peace" was accepted by both the Assad government and the U.S. The U.S. and Russia reached a consensus to convene a second meeting in Geneva to achieve Syria's political transition.

Developments in the Syrian crisis have given the world the expectation that the issue will be resolved by political agreement. However, conditions apply: the Assad government must step down, which is the core of the "political transition" advocated by the U.S. and the EU.

The destruction of Syria's chemical weapons will not stop the U.S. from using force against the country. There has merely been a postponement. Why? First, the handover of Syria's chemical weapons counts as a "moral victory" for the U.S. and also eliminates any concern for their future use.Second, the Syrian army is fighting extremist religious forces and al-Qaeda groups, and the U.S. would like to see a lose-lose situation. Third, there are no "good" leaders among the ranks of the Syrian rebels.

Therefore, should Assad be re-elected as Syrian President, it will become a major impetus for the U.S. use of force. The pretexts may include: claiming that Syria is still hiding chemical weapons; pressing the International Criminal Court to accuse Assad's government of using chemical weapons against civilians; giving an unachievable deadline for Assad to carry out the handover. Otherwise, the U.S. may simply use force to support the rebels in overthrowing the Assad government.