Japan needs great wisdom, not small tricks

Since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has witnessed two major strategic currents of thought: Pan-Asianism and "leaving Asia and entering Europe." Pan-Asianism ultimately degenerated into the expansionist ideology of the so-called "Greater East Asia," while the idea of "leaving Asia and entering Europe" evolved after World War II into a strategy better described as "leaving Asia and aligning with America." Under the long-term influence of this U.S.-centric orientation, tendencies of antagonism toward China, estrangement from South Korea, and hostility toward the DPRK have taken root in parts of Japan's political discourse.

Today, amid changes unseen in a century and in the face of China's rise, Japan once again confronts a major strategic choice.

Since modern times, under the influence of American will, Japan has been unable to view China's rise objectively, and has tried to use its alliance with the U.S. to contain it. However, the alliance that Japan relies on is actually an iceberg. The United States has always exploited its allies, and the U.S.-Japan alliance is nothing but a "bullying alliance."

The alliance is primarily manifested in military cooperation: Japan provides bases, while the United States pledges security guarantees. However, Washington frequently accuses Tokyo of "free-riding" on security and presses Japan to increase defense spending and purchase more U.S. weapons systems. Such demands, framed as burden-sharing, effectively translate into sustained economic pressure.

In the economic sphere, bilateral ties in 2025 witnessed what many in Japan described as an unprecedentedly coercive round of trade negotiations. The United States, disregarding the post-war free trade order it once championed, exerted heavy pressure on Japan to curb exports to the U.S., pushed for yen appreciation, and imposed steep tariffs on Japanese imports. In particular, high automobile tariffs dealt the most severe blow, shaking one of the pillars of Japan's economic foundation.

Not long ago, under the shadow of tariff pressure, Japan was pushed into concluding an investment framework reportedly worth $550 billion. Though presented as a "model of alliance cooperation," the arrangement in reality channels Japanese corporate capital and capacity toward advancing U.S. ambitions in areas such as artificial intelligence and energy dominance. Far from being as beneficial as advertised, the deal is less a "new benchmark" for the U.S.-Japan alliance than a telling illustration of its coercive and asymmetrical nature.

The United States has proven itself an unreliable ally. Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a spontaneous address lasting more than an hour at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in which he openly expressed his opinions on certain western political leaders. This has further heightened concerns among allies regarding the long-term direction and consistency of U.S. policy. As the UK-based publication The Guardian has warned, this is not merely a diplomatic dispute, but an ideological spillover with far-reaching implications. Japan must face the facts rather than cling to self-deception.

China's importance to Japan is self-evident. In 2024, bilateral trade between China and Japan reached $308.3 billion. In the first ten months of 2025, approximately 8.2 million visitors from the Chinese mainland traveled to Japan, accounting for roughly one quarter of foreign tourist spending and contributing substantially to the country's employment and economic growth. In sectors such as semiconductor materials, rare earth elements, and pharmaceutical inputs, Japan remains heavily dependent on China's supply chains. Attempting to "play clever," Japan finds itself in a contradictory position: on one hand, it is compelled to accept U.S. pressure while maintaining the U.S.-Japan alliance to contain China; on the other hand, it remains economically dependent on the Chinese market. China will never accept such a "two-faced" approach.

In a world undergoing transformations unseen in a century, what is required is broad strategic wisdom, not short-term cunning. Japan's economy cannot be disentangled from China, and the two nations are close neighbors. Only by establishing a relationship of strategic mutual benefit and safeguarding stability and peace in East Asia can Japan secure a sustainable future. Yet the Takaichi administration continues to pursue policies that turn neighbor against neighbor: expanding military capabilities, revising national security strategies, openly threatening to intervene militarily in the Taiwan Strait, and invoking the San Francisco Peace Treaty to propagate claims that Taiwan's status remains undetermined—all of which seriously undermine the political foundations of China-Japan relations.

The thinking of Japan's right-wing forces remains anchored in the Cold War era and is increasingly out of step with today's world. Their sense of national identity lingers in the era of "leaving Asia and entering Europe." They show little recognition of Asia, nor of China's development, and continue to interpret China solely from a Western perspective. Their policy toward China is limited to hostility and containment. Even as Japan's relative strength has declined, they maintain a condescending posture, critiquing China while using perceived threats as justification to reorganize military forces and pursue a China-directed foreign policy. Should Japan, under the influence of right-wing "economic security" rhetoric, attempt to decouple from China, the resulting economic shock could surpass the impact of the 1973 oil crisis.

Today, Japan again stands at a historic crossroads. Will it follow the tide, return to Asia, and treat China as an equal partner in pursuit of peaceful coexistence? Or will it continue to invoke the so-called "China threat," maintain an arrogant attitude toward its neighbor, repeat historical mistakes, and be led astray by the currents of the times? Will Japan choose the path of light or the path of darkness? Japan has indeed arrived at a critical juncture in its history.