Reckless adventurism: Japan risks losing neighbors' trust

Sanae Takaichi has led Japan's Liberal Democratic Party to victory in the 51st House of Representatives election. According to analysis by a University of Tokyo professor, Takaichi is expected to push forward a series of hardline measures after the election, including constitutional revision. The election results make one fact clear: right-wing forces in Japan have further expanded their influence. Japan's political landscape is likely to tilt even more to the right — a development that merits close attention and vigilance.

Since assuming office, Takaichi has moved aggressively in the security sphere. Efforts to expand exports of lethal weapons, accelerate defense spending to reach 2 percent of GDP two years ahead of schedule, and even explore revising the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" all point to a troubling shift. These actions reflect an accelerating loosening of postwar military restraints and signal a dangerous shift away from Japan's long-standing path of peaceful development. Increasingly, Japan risks becoming a destabilizing factor in regional security.

Japan's adventurism is no accident. It is the product of intertwined internal and external forces, driven in part by powerful vested interests.

First, shifts in U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific — described by some as a strategic retrenchment and realignment — have gradually moved Japan from its long-standing role as a sheltered ally to a more forward position in regional security planning, with expectations that it shoulder a greater share of defense responsibilities within the alliance framework. Washington's push for closer operational integration and "joint operations" has, in effect, given Tokyo greater room to reinterpret its long-held "exclusively defense-oriented" posture, while also providing external backing and a degree of political cover for policy change.

Second, domestic right-wing forces have fanned the flames. By amplifying narratives of so-called "external threats," conservative factions seek to transform the Self-Defense Forces into a fully-fledged military with broad combat capabilities. Takaichi's policy orientation aligns closely with these ambitions. Her electoral victory has effectively pressed the "accelerator" on military expansion, further consolidating a rightward political shift within Japan.

Third, the deep involvement of military-industrial interests cannot be overlooked. Major conglomerates such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries stand to benefit significantly from rising defense budgets. Even before Takaichi took office, defense-related stocks had surged on expectations of policy shifts. Japan's fiscal 2026 defense budget, set at a record 9.04 trillion yen (around $59 billion), underscores the growing influence of the military-industrial complex and its vested interest in sustained expansion.

At its core, the Takaichi administration's military adventurism reflects a gambler's mentality shaped by passive adaptation to shifts in U.S. strategy. On the one hand, it seeks to appease domestic hardliners and consolidate political power. On the other, it aspires to gain greater regional military leverage while reducing perceived dependence on the United States. In its haste, the government appears willing to sideline Article 9 of Japan's pacifist constitution, repeatedly escalating security measures and probing the boundaries of international norms in pursuit of short-term political gains and alliance approval.

Such short-sighted calculations not only export long-term security risks to the region, but also reopen unsettled historical accounts before the people of Asia. A Japan that dilutes its peace commitments, actively pursues military expansion, and speaks ambiguously about its past aggression will inevitably deplete its credibility and lose the trust of its neighbors.

It must be noted that the Takaichi administration is vigorously promoting what can only be described as a "new form of militarism," while turning a blind eye to pressing domestic livelihood concerns. Japan faces prolonged economic stagnation, an aging population, and mounting social welfare pressures. The growing gap between swelling defense expenditures and public livelihood needs is increasingly evident. Internationally, Japan's military trajectory has already raised alarm among neighboring states. Countries that once suffered under Japanese militarism remain deeply sensitive to signs of remilitarization. Without a thorough reckoning with history and a firm commitment to peaceful development, Japan will find it difficult to win genuine trust from its neighbors or expand its diplomatic space.

Asia needs peace and development — not the revival of militarist impulses. As a defeated nation in World War II and the only country to have experienced nuclear attacks, Japan's strong support for a U.S.-led nuclear deterrence posture based on the possibility of first use sends a troubling signal. This departure from historical reflection not only unsettles regional neighbors but also places Japan at odds with the broader global aspiration for peace.

Peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific have been hard won. If Japan remains obsessed with outdated militarist ambitions, disregards the lessons of history and the shared aspirations of regional countries, it will ultimately suffer the consequences of its reckless course and repeat the failures of the past.