China’s foreign trade up 1.3 pct in Q1, sustaining stable growth despite disruptions caused by US tariffs

China's foreign trade in goods in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, reaching 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion), surpassing 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters and marking a stable start to the year, as various support policies continue to take effect, official data showed on Monday.

Between January and March, the country's exports grew by 6.9 percent year-on-year, totaling 6.13 trillion yuan while imports decreased by 6 percent year-on-year to 4.17 trillion yuan, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs (GAC).

Chinese analysts said the stable foreign trade growth could provide strong support for economic growth in the first quarter, while noting that the Chinese exports sector has enough confidence to brace for the chaos and disruptions of the US tariff policies by the US through efforts focused on expanding new markets and enhancing cooperation with partners to safeguard the multilateral trading system.

Progress under pressure

Despite increasing external challenges, localities, government agencies and export-oriented enterprises have responded actively, ensuring a stable start to China's foreign trade in the first quarter, GAC deputy head Wang Lingjun said at a press conference on Monday.

In the quarter, China's import and export volume reached a new record high compared to the same period in previous years.

Over the period, trade with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries grew 2.2 percent, faster than overall foreign trade and accounting for 51.1 percent of China's total foreign trade, official data showed.

Trade with ASEAN reached 1.71 trillion yuan, up by 7.1 percent year-on-year, GAC data showed.

In dollar-denominated terms, exports in March rose 12.4 percent year-on-year, a five-month high, official data showed. It handily beat the 4.4-percent growth expected in a poll of economists, according to Reuters.

Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the academic committee at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Monday that growth and stability are the key words to describe first quarter foreign trade, as China's foreign trade sector responded with its scale and competitiveness to bring a steady rebound in the global markets amid improved expectations during the quarter.

Featuring steady export growth and coupled with a drop in import value, the first quarter foreign trade is expected to have a notably positive impact on the first quarter GDP growth, Zhang said.

Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the Beijing-based China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Monday that exporters rushed out shipments in March in anticipation of a deteriorating global trade landscape following the US imposition of tariffs, which has in part underpinned foreign trade growth in the quarter.

Highlights in the quarter include imports and exports of electro-mechanical products, exports of household appliances, laptops, and electronic components, as well as products from homegrown brands that have higher profit margins, according to GAC.

Multiple factors have resulted in the decline in imports value during the quarter, which decreased by 6 percent year-on-year to 4.17 trillion yuan.

International bulk commodity prices fell in the period, with average import prices of iron ore and coal falling by more than 20 percent, and those of crude oil and soybeans falling by 5.7 percent and 16.6 percent. These price factors affected the overall import growth rates by 2.6 percentage points, according to GAC spokesperson Lyu Daliang.

'The sky won't fall'

The frontloading of exported goods took place amid the US' ratcheting up of tariffs, which shot up to 145 percent in April from 20 percent in the first quarter. China responded by placing a 125-percent tariff on US goods.

This has dampened the global trade growth outlook, with the WTO warning that the trade row could cut the shipment of goods between the world's two largest economies by as much as 80 percent.

Despite a complex and challenging external environment, GAC's Lyu said on Monday that "the sky won't fall" for China's exports, underlining the confidence of Chinese foreign trade.

China in recent years has made steady progress in diversifying its foreign trade markets and deepening industrial and supply chain cooperation with partners around the world, according to Lyu, adding that these efforts "have not only supported our partners' development but also enhanced our own resilience."

Zhang said China could cope with the chaos in global trade in the coming months with its strong manufacturing capacity, efficient coordination on global supply chains, complementary upstream and downstream capabilities, and ever-increasing global competitiveness.

Zhang expected the country to further intensify its global cooperation with partner countries based on the BRI, regional integration such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) , and free trade partners across the globe, providing a cushion for any impact from US tariffs. "This is a multi-layered layout that cannot be overrun by the US tariff 'numbers game'."

The tariffs will have a big impact on the existing trade between China and the US in the coming months, but it won't erase all of it, and there will be newly tapped alternative markets to fill the void left by the US market, "so the prospects for China's foreign trade won't be as bad as some described," Chen said, adding that countries that believe in the multilateral trading system could enhance their cooperation in the face of US unilateralism and protectionism.

GAC deputy head Wang said that China and the EU share extensive common interests and significant opportunities for cooperation in many areas, as the two combined account for more than one-third of the global economy and are both advocates of economic globalization and trade liberalization, and steadfast supporters and defenders of the WTO.

In a separate development, Chinese and EU technical teams have begun engagement for negotiations on electric vehicle pricing commitments, Yuyuantantian, a social media account affiliated with China Media Group, reported on Sunday.

Responding to a question about the repeated changes in US tariff policies, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a regular press conference on Monday that facts have shown and will continue to show that there are no winners in a trade war and protectionism will lead nowhere. The tariff tsunami hurts the US itself as well as other countries. We urge the US to quit maximum pressure and resolve issues through dialogue on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit.

Additionally, China's response to the US unilateral acts of bullying also has the support of industries, merchants and ordinary citizens.

Ren Xiaoqiao, a merchant of furniture and accessories in Yiwu, East China's Zhejiang Province and the world's small commodities hub, told the Global Times on Monday that the US trade bullying has been met with widespread anger, and that he would rather give up the US market for now than swallow the staggeringly high tariffs. "There are other markets, we can weather the storm."

Even with the US threatening tariffs during the quarter and raising uncertainty in the global supply chain, China has continued to play the role of an anchor of stability for global trade, analysts say.

According to GAC, during the quarter, imports of poultry from BRI markets increased by 32.9 percent, and imports of dried and fresh fruit and vegetables increased by 8.5 percent.

GAC's Lyu emphasized that China's vast domestic market remains a strong backup for the economy, adding that the country will turn domestic certainty into a buffer against global volatility.