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Experts doubt Moody's downgrade of China’s economic outlook

(People's Daily)    13:50, March 09, 2016

Moody's Investors Service recently lowered its outlook on China’s credit rating from “stable” to “negative,” but experts in China doubted its credibility and called for cool-headed analysis, citing China’s sound economic fundamentals.

The reasons cited by Moody's for the downgrade included the authorities' capacity to implement economic reforms, rising government debt and falling foreign reserves.

According to many analysts, the agency failed to see the big picture of China’s economy, and ignored the fact that fundamentals supporting China’s sound long-term economic growth remain unchanged.

In addition, Moody's report did not take into account the fact that China’s economic restructuring has already borne fruits. Its service industry now contributes to about half of the GDP, while consumption keeps driving the expansion of its retail sector.

The agency was also criticized for failing to analyze China’s finance with an updating vision. In the newly released government work report, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang pledged that China will pursue a more proactive fiscal policy and maintain a prudent monetary policy. He also vowed to increase China’s deficit rate to 3 percent this year.

The move is set to accelerate tax cut, especially the value-added tax reduction in manufacturing industry, so that the industry’s global competitiveness can be boosted.

China’s decision makers have also sent a clear message that China will back up economic growth with fiscal expansion. Supported by high savings rate, China is believed capable of maintaining a loose monetary and credit environment by lowering deposit-reserve ratio and using other tools.

The latest data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed that China’s currency reserves still account for 32 percent of its GDP at the end of 2015 and the country’s deficit rate in 2015 stood at 2.4 percent. This proved that China has better solvency compared with many Western economies.

China is already the world’s second largest economy, and the remarkable accomplishments it has scored since it began to reform and open up over 30 years ago proved its capability of implementing economic reforms.

"We just have to get through this process, and we can, without question, reinvigorate the economy and ensure its dynamic growth," the Chinese government declared its resolution to achieve economic transformation and maintain medium-high growth in the latest government work report.

Rating industry giants including Moody's and Standard & Poor's, though still monopolizing the global market, have often been criticized for lack of transparency and credibility. The EU use to denounce the drawbacks existing in their operating procedures. 

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Ma Xiaochun,Bianji)

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