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Brookings Expert Predicts US-China Relations to Swing Upwards
The free-falling relations between China and the United States have almost hit rock bottom and will start to improve within the next few months, an analyst said Thursday.
A senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Studies program at Washington's Brookings Institution, Nicholas Lardy, said both countries had too much at stake to allow bilateral relations to plummet further.
"Given the interests of both sides, it's likely relations between China and the US will be on the up-swing in the next few months," Lardy told a Credit Lyonais Securities Asia (CLSA) investors' forum in Hong Kong via a video link from the US.
Lardy outlined several events since President George W. Bush assumed the leadership of the US in January that had damaged bilateral ties.
These included US arms sales to Taiwan, the granting of Taiwan leader Chen Shui-bian a transit visa to allow him to stop in the US on his way to and from a trip to Latin America, and Bush's push for a missile defence program.
But Lardy said China would be patient with the US and Bush's new administration would soon learn how to handle the relationship more moderately.
Lardy said it was vital for the US that it improved relations with China if it wanted to maintain and strengthen ties with its allies in the region, particularly Japan and South Korea.
"I think the Chinese believe the Bush administration will eventually learn what every administration has learnt since the early 1970s: That good US relations with other countries in Asia are impossible unless it has good relations with China," Lardy said.
From China's perspective, Lardy said Beijing would push to heal the rift between the two countries to enhance its chances of winning the right to host the 2008 Olympics and to enter the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Lardy said Chinese President Jiang Zemin also wanted George Bush to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting in Shanghai in October, followed by a state visit to Beijing, to ensure the success of the summit.
"Obviously from his point of view, one of the worst outcomes would be a downward spiral in the US-China relationship, which would lead to Bush boycotting (the China trip)," he said.
However Lardy pointed to further potential controversial issues that could endanger a thawing in the relationship, particularly whether Bush will personally meet the Dalai Lama when the Tibetan spiritual leader visits the United States this month.
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