人民网
Sat,Sep 13,2014
English>>Business

Editor's Pick

China expects bright tomorrow after painful slowdown

(Xinhua)    10:07, September 13, 2014
Email|Print|Comments       twitter     facebook     Sina Microblog     reddit    

BEIJING, Sept. 12 -- Economists agree that, despite looming downward pressure, China should continue with reform which causes temporary pain but brings growth in the long run.

"We need to focus more on reform," said Huang Yiping, of the National School of Development at Peking University and former chief Asia economist for Citigroup.

"Macro economic stabilization is still needed, but over stimulation should be avoided," Huang said, stressing the significance of growth that comes from reform, rather than stimulus.

Growth rebounded to 7.5 percent in the second quarter, but some economic indicators, including electricity consumption, have slowed, seeding fears that the need for growth may outweigh the will to reform.

Those concerns were brushed aside by Premier Li Keqiang when he declared that the government would not be distracted by statistical blips and would pursue quality growth through reform and innovation, no matter what.

With the global recovery still in the starting blocks, economic restructuring is the route China has chosen to drag itself out of the mire of the old growth model based on exports, investment and cheap labor.

"The change of growth model is difficult and will be painful," Huang said. "We have relied for too long on cost advantage and massive inputs of labor and capital."

Sticking to reform may be painful, but Markus Rodlauer, deputy director of the Asia and Pacific region at the International Monetary Fund, believes shifting to the right path will eventually pay off: Economic reform may be a cost in the near term but will be a benefit in the long run.

Huang's own calculations show China's growth could actually rise by 0.7 to 1.4 percentage points if reform is vigorously implemented. "Reform can improve resource allocation and industrial upgrades. Those are probably fundamental ways of supporting economic growth in the long run," he said.

Thanks to streamlined administration and delegated powers, more than eight million new businesses were registered in the first eight months, and over 9.7 million urban jobs were created, with unemployment staying low, around 5 percent.

Justin Lin, former chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank, thinks China can grow at around 8 percent until the end of the 2020s if all the "favorable conditions" are in place. These "favorable conditions" include upgraded industries and new technology. New technology comes from innovation, another watchword of current policy.

Reform needs time, courage and, above all, patience.

"We will tolerate some slower growth as long as it does not bring unemployment problems," Huang said. "I do not think there is an unemployment problem at the moment."

(Editor:Huang Jin、Bianji)
Email|Print|Comments       twitter     facebook     Sina Microblog     reddit    

Related reading

We Recommend

Most Viewed

Day|Week|Month

Key Words

Links