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Chinese economy not a "gray swan"

By Qi Wei, Chen Junxia (Xinhua)

13:06, March 03, 2013

BEIJING, March 2 (Xinhua) -- As Chinese lawmakers and political advisors meet to discuss national affairs and elect a new state leadership, the Asian giant's economic outlook has again come under the spotlight.

Doomsayers from Western media and business circles have for long predicted a "hard landing" of China's economy. Some have even tagged the scenario as a "gray swan" -- an event that can be anticipated to a certain degree and may have a sizable impact.

The gloomy projection is based on such arguments as "China's development mode is rife with hidden risks" and "China is about to exhaust its demographic dividend."

Against the backdrop of the ongoing global financial crisis, China's 2012 growth rate, which fell below 8 percent for the first time in more than a decade, has seemingly added to the pessimism.

However, such assertions do not hold water, as abundant data and hard facts are available to demonstrate that the world's second largest economy will enjoy sustained growth and prosperity.

From a historical perspective, since China adopted the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1970s, apocalyptic predictions about the Chinese economy have been many, but they all have proved false.

On top of that, the current sound health of the Chinese economy also gives the lie to those merchants of gloom. German weekly Die Zeit said in an article that China's economic prosperity is far from having ended.

The upbeat remarks are echoed by numerous economists. Justin Yifu Lin, former vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, believes that China has the potential to keep growing rapidly for the next 20 years.

Such optimism has a solid ground, as China boasts energetic exports, robust domestic demand and enormous potential for further reform. Financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, Nomura Securities and Barclays Capital agree that China is still on track for economic growth.

In terms of international trade, China's performance remains remarkable. Bloomberg News reported that China overtook the United States as the largest trader in 2012. Although the Chinese Commerce Ministry said China's commodities trade volume was over 15 billion dollars less than that of the United States, the boom of China's foreign trade is indisputable.

Moreover, China has ushered in the largest scale of urbanization in human history, unleashing a massive labor force and opening the door for additional domestic demand, which will help propel China's economy forward.

The newly established leadership of the Communist Party of China is committed to high-quality, sustainable development, and its strong will to advance China's reform process has gained worldwide attention and applause.

Thus the gray-swan theory has no market among serious minds. The Chinese economy will gather steam from reform, cut through such lurid predictions and move forward in a sustainable way.

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