"In 2013, improved government regulation and supervision could lead to some decline in non-bank financing, which in turn would require appropriate functioning of the banking system to ensure appropriate financing," she said.
Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS Securities, said increasing dependence on non-bank financing suggested that new yuan loans and M2 data can no longer reflect the real monetary and credit condition in the system.
"This year total social financing might exceed 16 trillion yuan, with the outstanding amount up by 17 percent year-on-year, which could support a GDP growth of more than 8 percent," she said.
To provide enough financing supply and contain risks, developing more fixed-income products in the securities market might be a good choice for the government, as over-rapid expansion of debts usually leads to economic crises, Wang said.
Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, said the desire to support growth will continue to influence monetary policymaking in 2013, but in the specific case of interest rates, a key consideration for policymakers is to ensure that, with inflation rising, the real deposit rate does not fall too much.
"This is especially so amid a move of savings out of bank deposits into wealth management products that offer higher rates of return," he said.
Feedback
RSS
