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China Focus: China's central bank expected to maintain monetary stance (2)

(Xinhua)    15:02, December 12, 2013
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UNCHANGED MONETARY STANCE

Qu, of HSBC, said he expects China's overall liquidity conditions to remain relatively accommodating, despite the relatively high interbank lending rates, which may stay higher for longer according to HSBC's research.

The current relatively accommodating monetary conditions should be sufficient to support real GDP growth rates of above 7.5 percent while keeping headline inflation around 3 percent in the coming quarters, he said.

In early 2013, the Chinese government set its economic work targets, with GDP growth targeted around 7.5 percent and the consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, capped at around 3.5 percent.

"We see little need for [the] central bank [to] change its monetary stance in the near term," Qu added.

Lu Ting agreed, saying that he believes China's monetary policy could remain neutral in December 2013 and 2014, even though money market rates and bond yields could rise a bit further.

Bank loan growth could remain around 14 percent in 2014, while TSF growth could moderate to around 16 to 17 percent as the problem of double counting is lessened.

"We expect the government to maintain neutral monetary and fiscal policies in the next couple of quarters while increasing their efforts on drafting and carrying out structural reforms," Lu said.

Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, also said the Chinese government would likely follow a relatively prudent monetary and credit policy stance.

She said she expects TSF growth to slow to about 16 percent in 2014.

"Given the ongoing interest rate liberalization and financial deregulation processes, credit growth could again exceed the government's desired pace in 2014," she added.

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(Editor:KongDefang、Zhang Qian)

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