Carbon emissions set to surge despite renewables growth in post-COVID-19 era

PARIS/LJUBLJANA, April 21 (Xinhua) -- Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are heading for their second-largest annual increase ever, as electricity generation from renewables is set to grow in 2021, a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) showed Tuesday.

The IEA's Global Energy Review forecasted that the emissions are going to surge by 1.5 billion tonnes in 2021, reversing most of last year's decline caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and making it the biggest annual rise in emissions since 2010.

ECONOMIC RECOVERY ACCELERATES ENERGY DEMAND

The accelerating rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations in many major economies and widespread fiscal responses to the economic crisis are boosting the outlook for economic growth and leading to a rebound in energy demand in 2021.

The International Monetary Fund projected that the global economy will grow 6 percent in 2021, reversing the 3.5-percent contraction that it saw in 2020.

Global energy demand, led by emerging markets and developing economies, is set to increase by 4.6 percent in 2021, more than offsetting the 4-percent contraction in 2020 and pushing it 0.5 percent above 2019 levels, the report said.

In 2021, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will increase by nearly 5 percent to 33 billion tonnes as demand for coal, oil and gas rebounds with the economy, it said.

"This is a dire warning that the economic recovery from the COVID crisis is currently anything but sustainable for our climate," said Executive Director of the IEA Fatih Birol. "Unless governments around the world move rapidly to start cutting emissions, we are likely to face an even worse situation in 2022."

RENEWABLES TO SET NEW RECORDS

The increase of renewable electricity generation is one of the biggest success stories amid the pandemic crisis.

Electricity generation from renewables is set to leap by more than 8 percent in 2021, the fastest year-on-year growth since the 1970s. The biggest contribution to that growth comes from solar PV and wind, projected to rise by 18 percent and 17 percent respectively from last year.

As a result, renewables are set to provide more than half of the increase in global electricity supply in 2021.

"We are seeing renewables growing very strongly. And we expect that this year the renewables growth will be reaching to a level that the share of renewables in the world electricity generation comes to 30 percent. It is the highest in the history. And this is mainly the result of the achievements in a few countries but China plays a critical role," said Birol.

Combined with nuclear energy, low-carbon sources of generation truly exceed output from the world's coal plants in 2021.

CHINA PLAYS CRITICAL ROLE IN GROWTH OF RENEWABLES

China is expected to account for almost half of the global increase in electricity generation from renewables, followed by the United States, the European Union and India, said the report.

"We are seeing significant growth of the economies. China is the first country where we have seen the lockdown measures lifted, the first economy that started to run. Then we are seeing strong economic growth from China, highlighting the resilience of the Chinese economy," said Birol.

Meanwhile, as an important contributor to adopting the Paris Agreement and an active participator in its implementation, China is resolutely committed to tackling climate change, and has vowed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

The extensive shift would certainly pose a challenge to the country's customary economic development model. For the IEA chief, "China's success story in renewables, especially solar, wind and hydropower, is critical and very important part of reaching Chinese climate targets."