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Justin Yifu Lin:China to become a high-income country by 2020

(People's Daily Online)    13:43, December 14, 2015
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Justin Yifu Lin:China to become a high-income country by 2020
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Justin Yifu Lin, Vice Chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and Professor at the National School of Development of Peking University, said at the 2015 annual meeting of China Business Times that China's economy can realize a 6.5 or higher annual growth within the 13th Five Year Plan period, and that China's per capita GDP may reach 12,615 USD by 2020, potentially making China a high-income country at that time.

According to the renowned economist, in the past, China's economic growth relied heavily on exports. However, in the 13th Five Year Plan period, exports will not be the main driving force behind economic growth. Instead, economic growth in this period will depend more on domestic demand. Domestic demand has two components: investment and consumption. Consumption is important because it is the purpose of economic development. However, the basis for increased consumption is the growth of income, and income growth relies on the improvement of labor productivity. Thus, technological innovations and development of industries are key.

Lin, the former chief economist of the World Bank, also said that when it comes to development of industries, infrastructure, environmental protection, urbanization and other areas, there are still many good opportunities for investment. "We have a great deal of available space in the proactive fiscal policy. The debt of the Chinese government, both central and local, accounts for just 56 percent of China's total GDP, even though the debt ratio in developed countries is often far above 100 percent. China's private saving makes up 50 percent of its GDP, and the government can leverage that amount through investment. In addition, China still has as much as 3.5 trillion USD of foreign exchange reserve." 

In Lin's point of view, if we make full use of the above mentioned favorable conditions, China is likely to achieve a 6.5 percent annual economic growth in the 13th Five Year Plan period. Considering the appreciation of the yuan, China's per capita GDP may reach 12,615 USD or higher by 2020 if calculated according to the exchange rate of that time. 

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Kong Defang,Bianji)

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