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Four judgments about China's economy

By Yuan Can (People's Daily Online)    16:49, September 08, 2015
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China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2014 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday. The revise has triggered lots of speculation on China's economy. There are also views that China's economy is slowing down in international society. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso expressed dissatisfaction towards China's economic policy at G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting which concluded on Sept.5.

Has China's economy lost its momentum? What is the future trend of China's economy? People may find clues from the following four judgments.

Judgment 1: Fundamentals of China's economy are overall stable

Those who claim that China's economy experience slowdown usually refer to two series of data. Purchase management index (PMI) in August fell to 49.7 per cent, lower than the critical point - 50 percent. Furthermore, industrial added value declined in July after slight increase in previous three months. What is behind these changes?

First of all, it is unconvincing to refer to single data. According to analysis by Morgan Stanley, PMI's decline in August is caused by seasonal and nonrecurring factors like military parade and severe weather. Meanwhile, erratic fluctuation of international financial and commodity market added unstable elements to China's economy.

Lou Jiwei, China's Finance Minister, said that the status of Chinese economy is still in predication. "Even if China's economy slowed down, China's contribution to the world's economic growth would be around 30 percent," Lou said.

Judgment 2: There will be no big adjustment in China's macro-economic policy

Lou stated that China will not pay special attention to seasonal short term economic fluctuation.

Lou said that macro-economic policy will focus on comprehensive goals like employment growth and price stability. China will not adjust economic policy due to change of single economic indicator. According to reports, three main economic indicators - GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and CPI year-on-year growth range - all run in reasonable range.

China is confident enough to bear short-time slowdown and to carry out economic reform.

Judgment 3: Stock market correction is roughly in place. Risks in financial market are controllable.

Market leverage has fallen sharply since the stock market correction started from mid-June, but this has not incurred any notable impact on the real economy, said China's central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. Recently, exchange rate between the RMB and U.S. dollars is tending towards stability. The financial market will be more stable. This trend is in accordance with what released by China's security watchdog. China's security watchdog carried out a series of measures to deal with stock market on Sunday night, which includes deepening reforms, improving legal framework and enhancing market supervision, by possibly introducing mechanisms such as a stock index circuit breaker system.

Judgment 4: Small and medium-sized enterprises will get more policy support

China's State Council, the cabinet, announced on Sept. 1 that China will set up a 60-billion-yuan fund (9.4 billion U.S. dollars) to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). China's Premier Li Keqiang has pledged that it is a market-oriented fund.

Furthermore, China will conduct tax relief on SMEs.

Li said many times that China will promote widespread entrepreneurship and innovation to create new growth momentum in order to keep stability of macro-economy. 

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Yuan Can,Bianji)

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