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CEE currencies resist wave of risk aversion over Greek dilemma

(Xinhua)    13:03, July 01, 2015
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BUCHAREST, June 30-- Central and Eastern European (CEE) financial markets on Tuesday resisted the wave of risk aversion spread by the turbulences around Greece's dilemma.

After a nervous start with smooth devaluations, CEE currencies recouped, but still tended weaker as uncertainty was still fueled by the Greek developments.

The markets were dominated by the classical scenario of investors first selling local fixed assets and rushing into forex markets to buy euros, which kept the region's currencies under pressure.

The intensity of this pressure was linked directly to the ability of central banks to resist an eventual assault, and to the deepness of the debt markets, said Ionut Dumitru, senior economist of Raiffeisen Bank.

"Romania's debt market is not as deep as Hungarian or Polish markets, so investors didn't afford to sell a huge amount of sovereign bonds, as there weren't many buyers at the end of the day and they didn't want to make some losses," Dumitru told Xinhua.

"So the pressure on leu, the Romanian currency, was harder Monday morning, as the wave of risk aversion went global, but smoothed as the trades evolved," added Dumitru.

The Romanian currency touched a five-month low of 4.50 lei against the euro, ending the day almost 1 percent weaker, but recovered on Tuesday, as the pressure diluted.

Financial analysts have expected a modest central bank intervention to temper the mood and offer liquidity.

"We believe that the Romanian National Bank clearly signaled that it is comfortable with a 4.52 level so it will protect the leu to avoid any panic spill-over. As a logical result we expect the Romanian currency to outperform peers given the central bank's involvement," senior ING Bank economist Ciprian Dascalu told Xinhua.

The pressures on Central European bonds eased as investors are pricing the outcome of the Greek crisis, said Deputy Finance Minister Enache Jiru.

"We've seen a pressure of the market in the last few months, but we can't attribute it only to the Greek situation. It was rather a regional flow created by the European Central Bank's exercise of quantitative easing," said Jiru.

"We are comfortable with the current level of disposable liquidity available at the State Treasury and we can resist the eventual adverse movements of the market," added Jiru.

Indeed, foreign investors' share in the Romanian currency debt is smaller than that in other countries, steady at 20 percent, and Jiru didn't expect a run-off due to panic.

The Treasury has a liquidity surplus of 10 billion to 14 billion lei (2.5 to 3.5 billion U.S. dollars) in its coffers and a buffer of 5.5 billion euros (6.2 billion dollars) stored with the National Bank of Romania, enhancing the country's capacity to avoid tapping the financial markets in at least five months.

Romania's financing need for the whole year is easy to cover, and stands at 61.5 billion lei (15.4 billion dollars), of which around 47 billion lei (11.8 billion dollars) are outstanding loans.

There are few worries that the Romanian currency could brutally devaluate, even in an extreme scenario, said analysts.

The rate of the Leu against the euro is targed at 4.52 this week, which will test the determination of the Romanian central bank, said ING Bank economist Ciprian Dascalu.

A Greek "yes" vote should bring the rate back in the 4.42-4.47 range, while in a "no" scenario, the pair is likely to trade in the 4.48-4.52 interval, said Dascalu.

The uncertainty caused by the Greek situation is likely to persist and to inject volatility in CEE markets and exchange rates over the coming days, said Raiffeisen Bank's financial analyst Wolfgang Ernst in a note to investors.

"Nevertheless, despite the high degree of uncertainty due to Greece we would regard the current weakening to bring buying opportunities on a 3-month time horizon for some CEE currencies," said Ernst.

"At the same time, it has to be reiterated that currencies like Polish zloty and Hungarian forint are among the most susceptible currencies in times of increased volatility," added Ernst.

The zloty and the forint naturally lost some ground and Hungarian and Polish government bond yields jumped modestly but the losses have so far been limited. Moreover, the Czech koruna looks almost immune while the Czech bond yields and especially swap rates even slightly declined, said analysts.

The Polish authorities are ready to defend the zloty and may postpone bond tenders, if the situation deteriorates, as the Finance Ministry has sufficient financial resources.

"We expect that Grexit (Greek exit out of the eurozone) could be perceived as such an extreme situation in which bond tenders could be canceled due to high volatility," said Micha Burek, a financial analyst at Raiffeisen Polbank.

Currencies and yields were broadly stable in CEE countries on Tuesday despite intensifying uncertainty related to Greece, but analysts expect a consistent rise in market tensions ahead of Sunday's referendum in Greece.

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Editor:Ma Xiaochun,Bianji)

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