China's exports have fallen for three months in a row, according to statistics released by the General Administration of Customs on June 8, 2015. As foreign trade is in a grim situation, analysts believe more policies to boost domestic consumption are warranted.

China's exports declined 2.8 percent year on year to 1.17 trillion yuan in May, marking a marginal improvement from the previous month but indicating continued pressure on the economy. Imports slumped 18.1 percent from a year ago to 803 billion yuan in May, bringing the trade surplus of the previous five months to 366 billion yuan, substantially up by 65 percent. In the meantime, total foreign trade slipped 9.7 percent from a year earlier to 1.97 trillion yuan.

The categorical data showed that China's exports to the US and the ASEAN countries have increased. In the previous five months, the total trade value between China and the US increased by 2.8 percent, within which China's exports to the US increased by 8.9 percent. Exports to the EU and Japan have declined.

Bai Ming, director of Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told Southern Metropolis Daily: "China's foreign trade is in a grim situation: on the one hand, labor-intesive industry has moved to Southeast Asia on a large scale and foreign investments in China mainly go to tertiary industry; On the other hand, economic restructuring takes time to accomplish and currently the industrial transformation is not enough to improve foreign trade." He predicts that in the next half of this year, the export situation will improve; however, it is unlikely that China can meet the goal of 6 percent growth in total volume of foreign trade this year.

It is noteworthy that the foreign trade of private enterprise has taken a larger share in the national total. In the previous five months, the total export-import volume of private enterprise reached 3.35 trillion yuan, 1.8 percent down year-on-year, which accounted for 35.4 percent of the total foreign trade volume, 2.2 percent up from the same period last year.

According to Niu Li, director of macro economy research office of the State Information Center, the foreign trade statistics of May shows that sluggish foreign and domestic demand has not changed. Considering the economic statistics of this April and May, the GDP growth of the second quarter will probably be lower than 7 percent.

Shen Lan, economist of Standard Chartered, said that China's economy will stablilize and improve in the next half year since more policies to boost domestic consumption are warranted. Standard Chartered predicts that China's economic growth in 2015 will be 6.9 percent, which is still within the range of the 7 percent target. 

The article is edited and translated from《中国出口连跌：中西部出口增长引关注 更多内需政策将出台》, source: Southern Metropolis Daily.