Africa Faces Daunting Task in Wake of Terror Attacks

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, December 16, 2001

Africa Faces Daunting Task in Wake of Terror Attacks

As African countries are bracing themselves for a new era envisioned by a plan of Africa's revival, the September 11 terror attacks on the United States wereobstructing their efforts for the continent's renaissance.

The plan "New Partnership for African Development" (NEPAD), mapped out by South African President Thabo Mbeki in conjunction with the presidents of Algeria and Nigeria, was designed to seek aid and investment in return for good governance.

The NEPAD, which also aims to unite African countries against social and economic problems like poverty and AIDS, has gained initial support from the EU and G-8 of major industrialized nations which hail the plan for laying the groundwork for Africa'ssustainable growth rather than relying on traditional aid packages.

The terror attacks on the U.S., however, apparently have put Africa in a disadvantaged position. Experts across the continent warn that Africa is likely to be "further marginalized" as the rest of the world turns its attention to the on-going war between America and the shadowy forces behind the terror attacks.

If the events in Afghanistan spiraled out of control and evolved into a protracted conflict, or even extends to other countries, African countries' drive to win concrete support for the NEPAD would move even further down the global agenda as rich nations were preoccupied with the war.

People could also expect that the campaign of the U.S. and its allies would consume media attention needed to expose the plight and suffering in Africa.

"Necessarily, developing countries that are tied to developed countries will suffer," Cote d'Ivoire Finance Minister Alain Bohoun Bouabre said.

Notably, there were fears that the military anti-terror campaign would lead to a reduction in the resources available for conflict resolution and peace-building in Africa.

The effect of these anti-terror attacks has already begun to reverberate throughout the African continent and will remain the same for some time with the U.S.-led war gathering pace.

As the U.S. economy is slipping into recession and European growth grinding to a halt, African economies are being hit seriously.

It would be impossible for African countries to achieve an average 3.8 percent growth this year as the World Bank had predicted earlier. Some African countries have already adjusted their estimate of economic growth for 2001.

For instance, South Africa has lowered its expected growth from3.5 percent to 2.6 percent.

Africa will also find it more difficult to achieve the target to halve poverty by 2015.

Despite the pledge by the U.S. Agency for International Development that American assistance to Africa will not be affected by the September 11 attacks and the subsequent retaliatory action in Afghanistan, collapsing U.S. consumer confidence and lower global growth expectations caused investors to again reduce their appetite for risk.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to sub-Saharan Africa fell from 8 billion U.S. dollars in 1999 to 6.5 billion dollars in2000, according to an investment report by the UN Conference on Trade and Development.

The report, however, projected that world FDI would decline by 40 percent for 2001, further draining badly needed FDI in Africa.

World trade in goods could come close to stagnation this year as the major economies that drove its growth over the past decade slide towards recession, dealing a heavy blow to Africa's already disadvantaged exports, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said in its annual report.

The WTO said that as growth in trade by volume would slow to about 2 percent after hitting a near-record 12 percent last year, it could slacken even further amid mounting global economic and commercial uncertainties.

Falling commodity prices may impoverish another 2 million to 3 million people in Africa, the WTO said.

Even before the attacks, commodity prices were forecast to fall7.4 percent on average this year. Oil prices, hit by the economic slowdown, are likely to fall about 5 dollars per barrel, or 20 percent next year to an average of just more than 20 dollars per barrel, possibly setting the stage for much lower agricultural andmetals commodity prices next year, economists said.

Notwithstanding sympathy for Africa, it must be remembered thatmuch of the continent is largely cut off from the world markets, with Africa's trade volume only accounting for 2 percent of the world total.

The continent's tourism has already been heavily affected. British, German and American tourists who once flocked to some African countries are staying away. Loss in tourism revenues couldprobably amount to billions of dollars.

With the economic quagmire, World Bank President James Wolfensohn warned of "another human toll that is largely unseen and one that will be felt in all parts of the developing world, especially Africa".

"We estimate that tens of thousands more children will die worldwide and some 10 million more people are likely to be living below the poverty line of one dollar a day because of the terrorist attacks," he said.

This would lead to further polarization between the North and South, and the haves and the have-nots, analysts said.

This is a testing time for Africa's leaders generally, but alsoan opportunity for them to demonstrate to the world -- and themselves -- their self-reliance.

"African solutions for African problems" will become truer thanever following the September 11 attacks, African experts noted.

The world remains skeptical of Africa's ability to put its house in order. However, if Africa can prove otherwise, it will prove an extremely valuable point.

If that happens, private investment would flow in some time andgovernment aid would be much less necessary. Without donor nationsto be entreated for assistance, maybe Africans will discover that all they had to do all along was to get on with it themselves.

However, the message is clear: Developed economies need to opentheir markets to exports from the continent and provide some form of debt relief. Unless this was done, Africa would never be able to extract itself from the aid trap it was in.

"It is only when we demonstrate sufficient commitment, responsibility and ownership that donors, partners and investors will respond positively," Nigerian President Obasanjo said.

African leaders have realized that maybe this is the time to take the initiative and put themselves at the center of their own world, not on the margins of someone else.

It may sound callous, but wars throw up opportunities as well as problems. While the rest of the world is preoccupied with the fight against terrorism, maybe Africa could fill the vacuum.

At a summit at the Nigerian capital Abuja in October this year,African leaders declared they would put to shame Afro-pessimists inside and outside Africa. This determination comes as a beacon ofhope for the African continent.

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