Despite Historic Agra Summit, India-Pakistan Relations Remain in Dead

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Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Sunday, December 16, 2001

Despite Historic Agra Summit, India-Pakistan Relations Remain in Dead

The year 2001 witnessed a historic summit between leaders of India and Pakistan, actually the first in more than two years. Nevertheless, hopes were dim forthe two subcontinental neighbors to put behind their longtime feudand forge a lasting peace in the foreseeable future.

In view of the constant exchange of fire between the two armiesalong the border and the endless violence and bloodshed in Kashmir,some pessimists were even saying that India-Pakistan relations in the current stage were no better than in late 1999, when the two countries just finished a major military conflict in Kargil of Kashmir that brought them to the brink of a fourth war.

It would be unfair to blame leaders of both countries for lacking the will to make peace, especially when you saw Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf continuously extended their talks till the last minute during their mid-July summit in north India's ancient city of Agra.

But it would also be naive to believe that the old saying "where there is a will, there is a way" would work here. Despite three days of painstaking efforts, negotiators from both sides even failed to work out a planned statement with mutually acceptedexpressions and had to let their leaders bid farewell to Agra empty-handedly.

Though not as successful as many had expected, the Agra summit yielded at least two positive results: resumption of a dialogue process which was abruptly halted in 1999 and a clear understanding of each other's position by both sides.

It was more encouraging that in their post-summit statements, both governments promised to "pick up the thread" from Agra and further promote the normalization of bilateral ties. While Vajpayee already accepted Musharraf's invitation to visit Pakistanin due time, the two leaders also agreed to hold more talks in NewYork in September on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.

However, the unexpected terrorist attack on the United States on September 11 and its aftermath changed the whole trend and triggered a rapid downslide in India-Pakistan relations.

Disappointed at the U.S. turning to Pakistan for help in its war against terrorism in Afghanistan and worried about reinforcement of Pakistan's stand on Kashmir with possible U.S. support, India lost no time in urging Washington not to forget itssufferings from "Pakistan-backed cross-border terrorism", an Indian reference to the decade-long militancy in India-controlled Kashmir which Pakistan vehemently denied. In return, Pakistan had accused India of exercising "state terrorism" in Kashmir and also trying to take advantage of its domestic crisis.

Tension mounted further in October: following a suicide attack by militants on the Jammu and Kashmir assembly building on October1 which claimed 36 lives, some Indian leaders and military officers started talking about the option of "hot pursuit" -- sending troops into Pakistan-controlled Kashmir to destroy "terrorist camps" there. Throughout the month, New Delhi and Islamabad had hardly stopped charging each other with "ominous troops buildup" along the Line of Control and the international border. For fears that a fire could break out anytime in the backyard of its anti-terrorism front, the U.S. had to send its Secretary of State Colin Powell on a whirlwind visit to South Asia.

Though the general-turned top U.S. diplomat largely succeeded in persuading India and Pakistan to exercise restraint and preventfurther escalation of tension, he also had a bitter taste of the complexity of India-Pakistan entanglement: hours before his arrival in Pakistan on October 15, the Indian army shelled and destroyed 11 Pakistani posts in Kashmir; after saying "the Kashmirissue is central to India-Pakistan relations" in Islamabad, which seemed to be echoing the Pakistani position, the general flew in New Delhi to a low-key welcome without red carpet and had to explain to the local media the "true meaning" of his words.

Diplomatic analysts here believe that what happened between India and Pakistan in the past couple of months has actually reflected a deep-rooted mistrust between them, which also obstructed them from achieving any concrete outcome in Agra. And they say the best and probably the only way to build up mutual confidence would be through continued dialogue and increased contacts.

Concerned about the "particularly risky" situation in Kashmir, the U.S. Bush administration, which had initially chosen to be an outsider on problems between India and Pakistan, recently also displayed an ever-growing enthusiasm for bringing the two rivals back to negotiating table. It also claimed that it was working outplans to "help build a long-term Indo-Pak relationship".

However, political observers here were doubtful about Washington's chance to succeed, citing Clinton's failure to persuade India and Pakistan to resolve the Kashmir issue through dialogue during his South Asia tour early last year and Bush's inability to make Vajpayee and Musharraf sit together for a meeting in New York during last month's UN session.

Though the U.S. involvement could have positive impact on the development of India-Pakistan relations, said the observers, it was the leaders of both countries themselves who were really holding the key to breaking the current deadlock.

Fortunately, there have been rising possibilities that Prime Minister Vajpayee and President Musharraf would have a meeting again during the upcoming South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit, scheduled for next month in Kathmandu.

Quite a few people here hoped that this meeting could finally come true. Even though the two leaders could only have some informal talks, they said, it would revive the interaction betweenthe two sides and bring new hope for a new year.

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